TD14 #3 - DISCUSSION

[AussieMark]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 090247
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2003

THE DEPRESSION IS VERY DISORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND IS NOT EVEN
PRODUCING ENOUGH CONVECTION TO WARRANT A DVORAK DATA T NUMBER. DEEP
CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO AN ISOLATED REGION WEST OF THE POORLY
DEFINED CENTER. WHILE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID-LEVEL CENTER
APPROXIMATELY ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...WE HAVE RELOCATED
THE SYSTEM BASED ON QUIKSCAT AND SSMI OVERPASSES THAT STRONGLY
SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA AND IS
PROBABLY STILL GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED FROM THE MICROWAVE DATA IS SLOW
WESTWARD...270/4. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED DUE
NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...DIGS
FURTHER SOUTH. AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE
A TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXCEPT THE
NOGAPS WHICH DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...GFS...AND
UKMET...AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND
24 HOURS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DRY AIR HAS IMPINGED SO
EXTENSIVELY INTO THE DEPRESSION...THAT INTENSIFICATION...IF
ANY...WILL LIKELY BE SLOW. FURTHER...SINCE THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
WILL TAKE THE SYSTEM OVER SUB 27C WATERS AFTER 48 HOURS...ANY
INTENSIFICATION WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO OCCUR BEFORE THEN.

FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0300Z 11.2N 23.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 11.8N 24.3W 25 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 13.0N 25.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 14.5N 26.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 11/0000Z 16.0N 27.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 12/0000Z 20.0N 30.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 13/0000Z 24.0N 33.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 14/0000Z 28.0N 35.0W 35 KT