TD14 #4 - DISCUSSION

[AussieMark]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 090839
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2003

THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 270/04. THE TRACK FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS THE SAME AS EARLIER. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT ABOUT MOVING THE DEPRESSION NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A
LITTLE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL CONVECTIVE BURST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...
BUT OTHERWISE THE CLOUD STRUCTURE REMAINS DISORGANIZED. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 25 KNOTS...SAME AS LAST ADVISORY.
NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING. IN CONTRAST THE
SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO HURRICANE FORCE IN 72 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINLY BECAUSE
OF LACK OF ORGANIZATION.

THE FORECAST TRACK IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AND...IF THE DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES...TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS COULD AFFECT THESE ISLANDS IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0900Z 11.4N 23.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 12.1N 24.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 13.7N 25.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 16.0N 26.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 18.0N 28.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 21.5N 31.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 13/0600Z 25.0N 34.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 14/0600Z 28.0N 35.0W 35 KT

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

a fish!