The ULL

[OtherHD]

If that ULL to Isabel's west keeps moving in tandem with her, I don't see how this will turn west. The ULL has been forcing it NW right from the start...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[cycloneye]

That ULL has saved the islands thank god.

[Steve H.]

Yep. But eventually it will fade and then she will get under the ridge. This is interesting 'cause the eastward extent of the ridge will start to build when this ULL moves out of the picture. That may delay the re-enforcement of the ridge 'til later, driving her further westward. The remnants of Henri is having the same affect. The ridge won't build westward 'til his remnants are gone. Still have a trough offshore Florida here, delaying the timing of the strong ridge, which may delaay the timing of the next trough. Interesting indeed.

[OtherHD]

I agr cyc. Isabel is not an islands storm. If any land is to be affected, it's the US EC and maybe Bermuda, assuming the NHC and model guidance doesn't verify.

[cycloneye]

The NHC will have to shift the track at 5 PM a tad more north as the eye is at 20n now and climbing.

[wrkh99]

cycloneye
You are not out of harms way ! This storm will come very close to you .

[wrkh99]

The GFDL...GFS...and NOGAPS model continue to forecast
a sharp west-southwestward motion after 36 hours. Out of respect
for these models...a slight southward jog is indciated in the
forecast track. The UKMET...however...model is not forecasting that
southward jog.

[Stephanie]

Is there a possibility that the ULL can develop into something more?

It also looks like it is moving more NW than Isabel at this moment. If it does evaporate, what would prevent Isabel from going into the GOM?