Scary forecast from Wxrisk.com-Direct Fla hit

[rob8303]

I still don't think this storm will ever turn west because of the weakness that's now forcing it not just wnw but nw but if it does turn west, watch out. Here's the forecast. The devastation this will cause IF true (which I don't think it is) will make 9/11/01 look like a picnic. Full credit to DT for excellent reasoning.

1155 AM SEPT 9 anyone hear about the much ballyhooed Hurricane Henri off the East coast? Oh well. IMO the threat to the Leeward Island is MUCH diminisheded. Isabel is now too far North at Midday to turn THAT far to the SW to affect the NE leeward Island.

The extended EUROPEAN model from last night has Isabel passing right over Mimai and Ft Meyers SEPT 16-17 then entering the eastern Gulf where it stalls....

The threat to Florida both on the east coast and west coast is INCREASING from isabel IMO... The GFS idea of Isabel NOT making lasabel at all OR Paralelling the east coast then making ladnfall by getting Pulled NW into the NC- Mass coast at 312 hrs is really Out there and IMO NOT likely to happen at all.

The problem remains with the GFS that that model continues to stall Isabel much further to the East than ANY OTHER MODEL.. The last several runs of the GFS have consistently stalled Isabel either over the extreme southeast Bahamas OR to the northwest of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. The model stalls Isabel for 24 to 48 hr period -- depending on which particular run of the GFS you are considering-- then begins to drift the hurricane northward for no particular reason whatsoever.!!

I do not dismiss the GENERAL IDEA of a stall of Isabel per se... BUT for the GFS to do so North of Haiti is hard to see. Isabel might indded stall but if it does so it would not happen until isabel was JUST east or OVER FLorida next week SEPT 17-19.

so Yes I like the European model thru day and through day 10 since it's been most consistent and again outperformed all other medium-range models with regard to Fabian.

.... And NO I do not like the operational GFS at either 0z or 6z but the overall idea may not be that bad. Again here my model choice has to be the European In fact UP to day 7 the GFS Upper air JET STREAM a map looks JUST like the European from LAST night!

The D7 operational European and 06z GFS are very similar-- they both show a deep for 5H Vortex over western Canada and they both have a deep 500 shortwave that is negatively tilted moving across the Great Lakes. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_180s.gif

http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/gifs/030909153439.gif

The development of a deep large vortex over the Northwest Caanda by day 7 is going to have the major implications for the overall pattern in North America as well as the possible future tracks of mighty hurricane Isabel. The development of the vortex at northwest Canada and the 500 shortwave over the Great Lakes to develops a negative tilt are sure signs that autumn is deeply entrenched across North America.

The extended operational European develops a trough over the western US by using the jet stream eenrgy coming into western caanda Under the 500 vortex over northwest Canada. Both the 00z and 6z GFS have this 500 vortex as well thru day 7-8 then lose the Vortex as the model resolution gets stepped down after 180 hrs. IMO The ECMWF trough on the WEST coast will be progressive and swing through the Plains and pickup Isabel if she has moved into the extreme eastern portions of the Gulf of Mexico.... sept 19-21

Lastly in the last several runs of the GFS have in fact tried to PULL Isabel northwest to the Middle Atlantic Coast. The GFS is doing this because it eventually does develop a trough in the western United States and the energy streaking eastward from the Pacific Northwest dives into the Plains the Midwest which carves out a trough... which in turn allows the model to capture Isabel and pull it Northwest. This idea has some merit BUT In my opinion the GFS is stalling Isabel too far to the east. SO if the stall were to occur say either over South Florida or in the western Bahamas... which I think is more likely to occur.... The northward the northwest movement as depicted by the GFS would in fact occur much closer to the coast and would affect large portions of the SE and Middle Atlantic states.

[GalvestonDuck]

...will make 9/11/01 look like a picnic.

Grrrrrrrr....

There is plenty of time for evacuation so loss of life would be minimal (hopefully zero).

[JetMaxx]

Dave Tolleris knows his stuff. Much of what I've learned the past 3 1/2 years on the internet regarding meteorology I learned from him...

His analysis this morning only serves to reinforce my own analysis that Isabel will eventually pose a serious threat to Florida....and possibly a rapid recurvature northward toward the Carolinas....similar to monster hurricanes Donna in 1960 and the 1928 San Felipe/ Palm Beach hurricane.

PW

[ameriwx2003]

Well... if the need to evacuate anyone in Florida did happen Lets hope the lessons from Hurricane Floyd were learned. I read that when Floyd was paralleling the Florida Coast well offshore there were still 1 million people jammed on 1-4 and other east - west roads trying to get to the West Coast. Of course its way to early to worry about evacuating ANYone in the US but sooner or later the need to evacuate millions of people in Florida will happen again:):)

[Josephine96]

Hey Rob.. You'd better hope there aren't any NY'ers in here.. that were in NY on 9/11

How dare you compare a potential Cat 5 Hurricane to a terrorist act? Who are you? a Pat Robertson wanna be..

[mf_dolphin]

Starting last year the emphasis is on evacuating less people not more. The lessons learned from the last few major evacuations is that large populated acn't be evacuated efficiently. Now the message is evac as few as possible and tell everyone else "hunker down" and "Good Luck"! :o

[Josephine96]

The thing with a storm of this size.. is that if it's a Cat 5 or a Cat 4 when and if it is barreling towards Florida, they may have to evacuate some of the inland areas too.. Especially in my area where everytime even a drop of rain falls now, the street floods..

To coin a phrase used once at Espn.. Isabel could be getting ready to tell Florida.. "Your 2 Minute Drill begins... now"

[ameriwx2003]

Perry I agree.. DT knows his stuff and I always look for his discussions and I have learned much from him as well. When DT starts honking I tend to pay a little more attention myself:):)

[jj]

While I agree the use of the words 9/11/01 and picnic in the same sentence were really in bad judgment, the potential for loss of life in a densely populated area from a strong hurricane (doesn't even have to be a 5) is a reality. Just ask those in the city of Galveston who, over 100 years later, still remember the 6,000+ people who died when the city wasn't very large, Houston was very small, and that un-named stormed was maybe a category 4.

[ameriwx2003]

Mf... Ah ok I missed that about evacuating but it makes sense to evacuate less people.

[Josephine96]

JJ- I do agree with you.. Loss of life could be tremendous.. I just don't think using 9/11 as an analogy was appropriate...

[Amanzi]

A friend of mine who was here during Andrew (just north of Daytona Beach) evacuated or tried anyhow. It took them over 3 hours just to get from there house to I95 which is literally 4 streets away from them. By the time they had reached Jacksonville something like 8-9 hours later they were evacuating everyone North of there..... A huge mess to say the least.

I think in my case (I am at high risk of storm surge as the ocean is 2 streets away and I have the Intracoastal waterway in my front yard) I would have to evacuate... where Im not to sure of Maybe way inland to a shelter if need be.

I just hope Perry and DT are wrong on this one (no offence, but I DONT want to go through a major cane thank you very much)

[GalvestonDuck]

JJ- I do agree with you.. Loss of life could be tremendous.. I just don't think using 9/11 as an analogy was appropriate...

Exactly. And I am from Galveston. The loss of life from the 1900 storm is still more than the number of deaths from all the rest of the US landfalling storms COMBINED.

[Scott_inVA]

Starting last year the emphasis is on evacuating less people not more. The lessons learned from the last few major evacuations is that large populated acn't be evacuated efficiently. Now the message is evac as few as possible and tell everyone else "hunker down" and "Good Luck"! :o

Marshall is correct....mostly

The biggest problem w/Floyd was the large number of people who evacuated from areas not designated. Floyd had such a tremendous envelope when the evacs went out many panicked and took off. ES personnel were not staffed to handle that many people bailing at once. Then when the recurve was nearly obvious (it was all along but not publicly) more people freaked out and ran. Interstate intersections can't handle 2,000 vehicles/hour doing 5 MPH, so parking lots are the result.

If people follow instructions EXACTLY, most of these issues are minor. But people don't/won't and ES understands that so evacs now are more limited and designated in surge areas and locations expected to see ~80MPH sustained winds, or obvious flood risks. This is why the media devotes so much time to preparedness...the day is coming we'll have another large Evac and many will be forced to stay put and deal with SVR wx.

Scott

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

We had the same evac. problem here. Interstate 1-26 was backed up over 18 hours. Not GOOD!

[GalvestonDuck]

Perry, Floridians, or anyone else who knows about the history of FL 'canes --

Orlando is inland. What's the worst they've ever experienced during a hurricane?

[ChaserUK]

IF Isabel was to threaten Florida when do you think they would start closing the airports?

[ameriwx2003]

Scott.. you bring up a great point about people evacuating who don't have too.. That is always going to be a huge problem. I feel for EM's trying to solve this problem:):)

[mf_dolphin]

We have a situation here in Pinellas County, (St Petersburg) where there are 4 main evac routes. Three of these are bridges with the 4 th being the notorious US 19. The chances of ecavuating even the most threatened are slim and none even if we had a 72 hour notice. As Scott said, add to the necessary evacuations all those people who decide to leave as well and you have our worst nightmare. This area is a disaster waiting to happen and the only question is when.....

[Josephine96]

To answer 2 questions..

1. Galveston.. If a Cat 4 or 5 were to come on shore in Brevard, Volusia or even Indian River County.. the effect on Orlando would be un heard of. According to something I heard when Bob Sheets was still at the NHC.. A hurricane only loses 1 category for every 50-60 miles.. So if It slammed into Brevard or Indian River County as a Cat 4 or 5 it would still be a 3 or 4 by the time it effected Orlando Metro..

2. Chaser- I remember this during both Erin and Floyd.. They close airports I believe it is something like 18 hours before a scheduled strike is when the last flight takes off.. Don't quote me but I believe that's correct