San Juan AFD about track of Isabel and model solutions

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cycloneye
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San Juan AFD about track of Isabel and model solutions

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 10, 2003 5:56 am

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/JSJ/AFDSJU

They are compromising between the GFS and the other models in other words in the middle not being a threat to the northern islands but only some rain and big swells.But if Isabel dips below 20n at some point then things will get rough for Puerto Rico and the northern islands but that is not expected to occur.
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#2 Postby Steve H. » Wed Sep 10, 2003 6:38 am

Keep watching luis. Think she'll drop a half degree, maybe even a full degree south over the next 48 hours, so she could change the weather significantly there.
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#3 Postby Aquawind » Wed Sep 10, 2003 6:44 am

Good reading. Thanks for the post Luis!
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#4 Postby TampaFl » Wed Sep 10, 2003 6:52 am

Thanks Luis, keep us posted.

Robert
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#5 Postby msbee » Wed Sep 10, 2003 8:35 am

thanks Luis
those discussions are so helpful to me
believe me, the news from the Met Office here in St. Maarten this morning is
"don't let your guard down"
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#6 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 10, 2003 8:40 am

Yes msbee until Isabel passes that 62w longitud that ST Marteen is and the 66W-67w that Puerto Rico is we can't relax because with that monster high to the north Isabel may take a little dip in latitud putting the northern islands in a danger zone but I dont expect Isabel to dip below 20n.
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#7 Postby msbee » Wed Sep 10, 2003 9:07 am

Luis
I tend to agree
and even if she dips slightly, I do not see our islands geting anything more than maybe some tropical force winds at the most
a direct hit, it seems to me, is not very likely
that scenario would surely rewrite the history books
still...we watch and worry, right? :-)
Barbara
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