Tropics and mid atlantic coastal wx 11 AM EDT

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good morning everyone. At 11 AM EDT, Isabel remains a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson scale.

At 11 AM EDT, the center of Hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 21.3 north, longitude 50.9 west or about 750 miles ENE of the northern Leeward Islands. Isabel was moving towards the west at 12 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On this track, the center of Isabel will remain north of the Leeward Islands and north of Puerto Rico!! However large battering waves will impact the northern facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands this weekend. Waves of 10-20 feet are possible!!!

Maximum sustained winds remain at near 135 mph with higher gusts. This makes Isabel a dangerous cantegory 4 hurricane on the saffir simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are always expected in major hurricanes and such the case for the next 24 hours. The outflow is expanding both west and east of the center with some slight restriction to the north. The inner core/eyewall will control the intensity of this hurricane.

Eventually as we go out 4-5 days down ther road, the Bahamas will need to watch dangerous hurricane Isabel very closely and by early next week, the threat shifts to the sunshine state!! Certainly the potential exists for a major hurricane in the southeastern United States by Monday or Tuesday of next week. We can't write this one out because the ridge will remain north of the hurricane through the forecast period, thus the west motion. As I've been pointing out in earlier discussions, it's critical that we vigilantly watch this hurricane from Florida northward into the Carolinas. Same can be said for the Bahamas also.

Minimum central pressure remains the same at 948 mb or 27.99 inches. A recon hurricane hunter aircraft will check out Isabel once it gets west of 55 degrees west longitude.

Meanwhile there is still high surf and coastal flood issues for the VA/NC coast today. A small craft advisory and gale warning are in effect also. The combination of strong high pressure in the northern Mid Atlantic and the center of what was Henri is causing a tight pressure gradient and a prolonged notheasterly fetch along the MD/VA/ and NC beaches.

Here are the current buoy reports for 11 AM EDT, all wind speeds are in knots and all temperatures are for the water.

Chesapeake Light: NNE 30 kts gusts to 32 kts, waves 9 feet.
Th buoy 64 nm east of VA Beach: NNE at 25 kts, gusting to 31 kts, 74 degrees.
Diamond Shoals Light red buoy: noth at 21 kts, gusting to 27 kts, 72 degrees, waves 12.5 feet.

At Virginia Beach, high tide this morning produced minor street looding on Virginia Beach Boulevard at the intersections of Monticello and Onley. High tide this evening will be at 8:40 PM with a projected height of 5 feet. The Next high tide at swells Point will be after 10 PM this evening with a projected height of 5 feet.

The increase onshoe flow and astronomial high tidea will contribute to the formation of dangerous rip currents over the Atlantic beaches from Fenwick Island, DE to Currituck Beach Light. Beachs in this region include Ocean City, MD, Assateague, Chincoteague, and Virginia Beach, VA. Waves in the surf zone will average 5-8 feet. Thus a high surf advisory is in effect. In addition minor tidal flooding is possible at tims of high tide!!!

Meanwhile TD # 14 over the Cape Verdes looks less organized with 30 mph winds. It could fall apart shortly and give up the ghost. More updates on all of this later today.

Jim

[JCT777]

Great update, Jim. I am watching both Isabel and the disturbance formerly known as Henri. The latter could bring some wind/rain to parts of the northern mid-Atlantic and New England in the Friday through Sunday period. The former, of course, is something all coastal residents(and those within a few hundred miles of the coast) have to watch very carefully! :o