Isabel and the Gulf of Mexico....

[Johnny]

Do any of you think that Isabel has a date with the GOM? On this board I have heard alot of different opinions on what Isabel will do and of course, no one knows for sure. There are talks of a very strong ridge which will keep Isabel on a westward track and then into the GOM. I know anything is possible but what are y'alls thoughts on Isabel going into the GOM instead of up the East Coast?
Here in Houston we will have a cold front stall out just to the North of us come Friday and into Saturday. Come Sunday and into early Monday a stronger cool front will push through and should keep Isabel from even getting close to us and perhaps even the GOM. Any thoughts???

[Frank P]

Listening to the New Orleans mets some have come to that same conclusion.... the west and central Gulf Coast should be protected by the front, even if in the unlikely event it were to make it to the GoM... but they also cautionsly add.... its still something that needs to be watched...

[mf_dolphin]

Since we're a week from when that could happen it's hard to make a call right now on the GOM. It looks like a westward track is a pretty sure thing for the next few days at least. This brings the GOM as a possibility but it's just too early and too many variables to call the GOM.

[Frank P]

Yeah, now if its still plugging along on a wnw track going through the southern part of Florida, then it'd get my attention big time.... but that's a really big IF...

[wrkh99]

It wouldn't suprise me if this storm hit FL twice

[Frank P]

Interesting scenario... hits the Fl east coast, perhaps southern parts, say as a strong Cat 3, weakens to a Cat 1, re-energizes to a strong Cat 2 in the GoM as it straffs the FL west coast, gets pulled north and strikes the extreme NE panhandle area... would be a bad week for Fl for sure... overall I'd give this at the particular moment less than 25% probablility... with the right of course to either raise or lower it with time...

[AussieMark]

I would say that if it struck Florida it may strike Mississippi/Alabama coastline.

I am just using my gut instinct because both are overdue for a direct major hurricane strike

Alabama - Frederic - 1979
Mississippi - Elena - 1985

[southerngale]

I'm beginning to think the GOM is a possiblity. The GFS now brings it into the GOM and Derecho said in chat that the latest AVN shows a Tex/Mex landfall.
Stay tuned.....As the Tropics Turn....

[FreakyWxChick]

A met friend and I were talking last night about this. His line of thinking is that she will make landfall anywhere between Miami and JAX. I told him I see her squeezing through Miami and Cuba and stalling out in the SE GOM before making a NE turn hitting the Ft Myers to Tampa area and continuing NE track to Savannah.

It's all speculation at this point though, and my guess is as good as anybody's.

[Lindaloo]

I would say that if it struck Florida it may strike Mississippi/Alabama coastline.

I am just using my gut instinct because both are overdue for a direct major hurricane strike

Alabama - Frederic - 1979
Mississippi - Elena - 1985

Um We just had one in 98!! Hurricane Georges and he was a Cat 2.

[Guest]

Gilbert track....keeps on heading west ....

[WeatherEmperor]

I dont think we should start talking about the GOM just yet. It hasnt even cleared the islands yet and hasnt even reached the Bahamas. Just wait till it clears Florida before we go to GOM.