Joe Bestardi's Henri resurgence/landfall

[mitchell]

Here's what Joe B had to say this morning:

[size=9[i]]"...Farther north and east, the stage is set for what could be, in the extreme, a memorable September event for the middle and north Atlantic coasts. East winds at 20-35 mph will pound the beaches through Friday, and 10- to 15-foot waves will continue their hammering in front of what should turn out to be a reborn Henri. In the worst case, places from New Jersey to Virginia, after three days of water piling up, will have the extra surge from a tropical storm or hurricane coming at them. My call on Henri, now near 33 north and 74 west, is for a northward move to start later tomorrow, with a landfall between New York and Ocean City Maryland on Saturday.

There is no question the system is warm core. The low-level circulation is better organized now than it has been since it was in the Gulf. Until (and of course this a big if) a plane gets in there, we won't ever know if I am right, but using thickness considerations we would find out. We have plenty of dry air around now, but one has to ask themselves, in the face of all this, if it's still there, why shouldn't it mean business? The stronger upper low moving westward in front of Isabel will turn northwestward tomorrow and Friday, and the upper anti-cyclonic bend to the northwest of it may get right over Henri and allow sudden deepening. The models are all seeing the warm core aspect, as they weaken the storm after landfall.

But the real problem lies with the overall pattern. Big monster high, existing storm that will at least hold its own coming into the high until landfall, and since the high is in no mood to move supported the way it is, a natural tightening of the gradient. Any deepening of the system and increased organization (and I think there will be) and we are dealing not only with major a rain storm from Hatteras northward to New York and eastern PA, but also the chance of damage to ocean front property from the Outer Banks to New Jersey from wave and tidal effects. A good compromise would call for areas from New Jersey southward to Hatteras to see highest beach winds of 50-60 mph and 1-3 inches of rain before this moves inland and weakens north Saturday night and Sunday..."[/size][/i]

[GalvestonDuck]

Shhhhh...don't tell WRKH99.

[jfaul]

Here's what Joe B had to say this morning:

[size=9[i]]"...Farther north and east, the stage is set for what could be, in the extreme, a memorable September event for the middle and north Atlantic coasts. East winds at 20-35 mph will pound the beaches through Friday, and 10- to 15-foot waves will continue their hammering in front of what should turn out to be a reborn Henri. In the worst case, places from New Jersey to Virginia, after three days of water piling up, will have the extra surge from a tropical storm or hurricane coming at them. My call on Henri, now near 33 north and 74 west, is for a northward move to start later tomorrow, with a landfall between New York and Ocean City Maryland on Saturday.

There is no question the system is warm core. The low-level circulation is better organized now than it has been since it was in the Gulf. Until (and of course this a big if) a plane gets in there, we won't ever know if I am right, but using thickness considerations we would find out. We have plenty of dry air around now, but one has to ask themselves, in the face of all this, if it's still there, why shouldn't it mean business? The stronger upper low moving westward in front of Isabel will turn northwestward tomorrow and Friday, and the upper anti-cyclonic bend to the northwest of it may get right over Henri and allow sudden deepening. The models are all seeing the warm core aspect, as they weaken the storm after landfall.

But the real problem lies with the overall pattern. Big monster high, existing storm that will at least hold its own coming into the high until landfall, and since the high is in no mood to move supported the way it is, a natural tightening of the gradient. Any deepening of the system and increased organization (and I think there will be) and we are dealing not only with major a rain storm from Hatteras northward to New York and eastern PA, but also the chance of damage to ocean front property from the Outer Banks to New Jersey from wave and tidal effects. A good compromise would call for areas from New Jersey southward to Hatteras to see highest beach winds of 50-60 mph and 1-3 inches of rain before this moves inland and weakens north Saturday night and Sunday..."[/size][/i]

how about the isabel forecast?

[Steve H.]

Yeah, what he say 'bout Isabel. Inquiring minds want to know!!

[hurricanedude]

ISABEL IS A WEEK AWAY, THIS IS A LOT MORE IMPORTANT IN THE SHORT TERM FOR RESIDENTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC. WE HAVE HAD 3 DAYS IN A ROW OF 25-45 MPH WINDS AND THE WAVES UP TO 15 FEET AND SIGNIFICANT TIDAL FLOODING, SO LETS TAKE THIS SERIOUS, CERTAINLY NO ISABEL BUT STILL QUITE A STORM. I CAN ONLY ARGUE THIS BECAUSE IM SITTING HERE WITH WATER IN MY YARD UP TO MY KNEES FROM TIDAL FLOODING, AND ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE AS THIS GALE CENTER IS STATIONARY

[OtherHD]

OVERRATED

[hurricanedude]

DO YOU HAVE WATER IN YOUR YARD 3 FEET DEEP?

[hurricanedude]

...High Risk Of Rip Currents Today For The Atlantic Beaches From Fenwick Island Delaware To Currituck Beach Light North Carolina...



... High surf advisory today for the Atlantic beaches from Fenwick Island Delaware to Currituck Beach Light North Carolina...

... Minor tidal flooding possible at times of high tide today and tonight...

High pressure over the northeastern states will combine with a stationary low pressure system southeast of Cape Hatteras to produce a persistent onshore wind flow today. This... along with the astronomical full moon phase... will result in higher than normal tides.

At Sewells Point... high tide this evening will be shortly after 10 PM... with the projected height near 5 feet.

At Virginia Beach... high tide this morning produced minor street flooding on Virginia Beach Boulevard at the intersections of Monticello and Onley. High tide this evening will be at 8:40 PM... with the projected height of 5 feet.

In addition... the increased onshore flow and astronomical tides will contribute to the formation of dangerous rip currents over the beaches from Fenwick Island to Currituck Beach Light. Beaches in this region include Ocean City Maryland... assateague and Virginia Beach Virginia... and Corolla North Carolina. Waves in the surf zone will average 5 to 8 feet... thus a high surf advisory is in effect.
sOUND OVERATED TO ANYONE ELSE
THATS FOR YOU HD...LOL

[Rainband]

Stay safe MIKE!!!

[OtherHD]

No Dude I mean JB is overrated

[hurricanedude]

I KNOW WHAT YA MEANT HD, THATS WHY I PUT "LOL" AFTER MY STATEMENT, YOU DA MAN

[Stephanie]

ISABEL IS A WEEK AWAY, THIS IS A LOT MORE IMPORTANT IN THE SHORT TERM FOR RESIDENTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC. WE HAVE HAD 3 DAYS IN A ROW OF 25-45 MPH WINDS AND THE WAVES UP TO 15 FEET AND SIGNIFICANT TIDAL FLOODING, SO LETS TAKE THIS SERIOUS, CERTAINLY NO ISABEL BUT STILL QUITE A STORM. I CAN ONLY ARGUE THIS BECAUSE IM SITTING HERE WITH WATER IN MY YARD UP TO MY KNEES FROM TIDAL FLOODING, AND ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE AS THIS GALE CENTER IS STATIONARY

Well, there's no flooding in AC yet or in the back bays. It's still mighty breezy/windy. The employee parking lot always floods so it's going to get mighty interesting.

Stay safe Mike! I'll keep up with my own local obs down here in AC.

[JCT777]

I have to say, I am kind of surprised at what the "storm formerly known as Henri" is doing. Yes, JB has been talking about this for days - but not ONE of my local forecaster had mentioned anything but a pleasant, sunny weekend for my area until this morning. And my TWC local forecast this morning was for "Sunny with a high temp of 82 degrees" on Saturday. On my way to work, I heard the latest Accu-weather forecast calling for cloudy skies on Saturday and windy, with a chance of rain. So obviously the threat from this storm for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast is real. Seems like it has caught a lot of forecasters off guard.

[obx_storm_watcher]

I took a ride down our beach road today and in Kitty Hawk there is a section where the dune has already been breached. I don't know how much pounding it can take before it takes the road with it. I would guess the winds are @20-30 mph pretty steady straight off the ocean.

I hope it eases up soon.

[Colin]

LOL..."OH NO"

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

The wind is really whipping it here too. I was wondering why, since there was no rain forecasted.

[hurricanedude]

Henri has a well defined center as shown on vis sat...and tstorms are developing, i hope for JB sake something comes out of this tropically that is

[mitchell]

NWS has picked up on this and is now forecasting winds/t-storms/rain for friday night into saturday with coastal flooding here in Delaware

[Stephanie]

NWS has picked up on this and is now forecasting winds/t-storms/rain for friday night into saturday with coastal flooding here in Delaware

The same here in NJ Mitchell. Rain from Friday night into Saturday with wind and surf advisories/rip currents for the shore.

[JCT777]

Yes, mitchell and Steph - and this is just a teaser for what could be a much worse situation later next week (ala Isabel).