12Z GFS...The Hits Just Keep On Comin'

[MWatkins]

Well...we're up to 5 in a row but this one...no surprise...is a little faster with the forward motion and the model does a better job of depicting the strength of Isabel than did the 0Z model. At t+150 (beginning of the day next Tuesday) the GFS has Isabel now in the Southeast Bahamas sooner than the 00Z run at the same verify time:

12Z:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... r_150s.gif

00Z
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... r_162s.gif

By Wednesday morning it's just north of the northeast Cuba coast, which is significant because the previous runs have been very slow with the westward movement...and by next Friday it's approaching the Florida straights.

I've been saying this for the last day or so and I'll say (or type) it again...the models will probably continue to speed up over the next few runs...and the timeline may bump up a bit too.

Days 5+ in any model are for entertainment only...but this is 5 runs in a row that the GFS has suggested a SFL threat after flip-flopping around in the extended period for days.

The first NOAA jet will be out tomorrow and this should clean up the model disagreement some and give us a better idea on what is to come. An even stronger signal will be to see if the 12Z UKMET starts to shift west...seems invariably like it's always the last model to do so...

Looks like some long days ahead.

MW

[ameriwx2003]

Mwatkins... yes 5 runs in a row now.This is starting to look interesting. :).

[Steve H.]

But now it bypasses Florida and puts it in the western GOM!!!!!!!!!!!! Not sure if I buy that YET!!! But it shows a super strong ridge.

[ameriwx2003]

Whoaaaa now this is going to really get the discussions going lol.. pictures are worth a 1,000 words;):)


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _240.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _264.shtml


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _288.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _312.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _336.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _360.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _384.shtml

[Anonymous]

Very interesting as Isabel may be taking a very similar path to Georges.

Not good for Florida and the GOM later on, as things are starting to take shape.

[opera ghost]

I don't even preten to understand the forces predicted or shifting around the models- but I've had a bad feeling about this storm since I saw her develop last week. It was bad enough of a feeling to convince the husband that we should actully make a hurricane bag just in case.

My gut feeling (Not supported by anything but my gut) has said since the moment I saw her off CV that she was heading for the gulf.

For 11 years I've bene rooting on hurricanes for landfall around Houston- this is the ONLY hurricane I've ever wished away... I guess I should have been rooting it on all along.... Maybe then it would have gone out to sea....

[Johnny]

ameriwx2003, thanks for posting. Very interesting.

[floydchaser]

12z GEM is also farther south compared to the 00z run. This appears due to slower progression of that upper level trough over the Plains. 00z run had that over the East by Tuesday, lifting Isabel northward off the east coast. 12Z GEM, which only goes out 144 hours, has the storm over the Eastern Bahamas Tuesday 8AM.

[weathergymnast]

And here I thought Stalling over florida from 288 to 368 was a bad solutino. Now the 12z has come out.. and Oh my.. right now I would not support the 12z solution. It just looks even more drastaic than the 06z of having Isabel park over Florida.

[Calistar]

Well...we're up to 5 in a row but this one...no surprise...is a little faster with the forward motion and the model does a better job of depicting the strength of Isabel than did the 0Z model. At t+150 (beginning of the day next Tuesday) the GFS has Isabel now in the Southeast Bahamas sooner than the 00Z run at the same verify time:

12Z:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... r_150s.gif

00Z
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... r_162s.gif

By Wednesday morning it's just north of the northeast Cuba coast, which is significant because the previous runs have been very slow with the westward movement...and by next Friday it's approaching the Florida straights.

I've been saying this for the last day or so and I'll say (or type) it again...the models will probably continue to speed up over the next few runs...and the timeline may bump up a bit too.

Days 5+ in any model are for entertainment only...but this is 5 runs in a row that the GFS has suggested a SFL threat after flip-flopping around in the extended period for days.

The first NOAA jet will be out tomorrow and this should clean up the model disagreement some and give us a better idea on what is to come. An even stronger signal will be to see if the 12Z UKMET starts to shift west...seems invariably like it's always the last model to do so...

Looks like some long days ahead.

MW

---------------

Mike, is there a possibility that Isabelle could end up in the GOM? I know one of the models is suggesting this but DTWaxrisk is poo-pooing this model. Just wanted to know your thoughts.

Thanks
Calistar

[wxman57]

I think a track south of Florida, across the Gulf to offshore Brownsville, TX, then back off to the ENE toward Florida at 384 hours seems perfectly reasonable.

[ameriwx2003]

WXMAN57 LMAO.. yes, I was surprised to say the leaST to see that solution for Isabel:):). I am kinda finding it hard to buy myself but I am not a MET so who the heck knows:):)

[dixiebreeze]

Thanks Mike, pertinent info as always -- albeit still on the scary side

[opera ghost]

I think a track south of Florida, across the Gulf to offshore Brownsville, TX, then back off to the ENE toward Florida at 384 hours seems perfectly reasonable.

If I'm imagining that correctly- and PLEASE correct me if I'm wrong- you're saying it might ride up the north gulf coast from Brownsville out to east florida? that'd be bad news for everyone on that coast *Laughs a bit nervously*

I still gotta bad feeling about this one. Real bad feeling. Like the feeling when you see Rats fleeing the lower compartments of a ship that you once thought was perfectly sound....