The Good Ol' Texas/Mexico Border :-)

[Derecho]

Targeted by the new GFS...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_312s.gif


Misses Florida to the South.

Before the cliched Bust-Turdi imitiation GFS bashing starts, remember that it's only one of two publicly avaliable models beyond 7 days (the Canadian is out to 10 days but hardly anyone is aware of it); if the UKMET, NGP, etc ran out to 16 days, they'd flop around wildly as well.

With each run it's fairly remarkable how the ridging is getting stronger on EVERY model. Of course, beyond 5-6 days specific landfall locations on all globals are, as has been noted, for entertainment purposes only.

But the possibility that Florida is missed to the SOUTH can't be ignored.

[Stormcenter]

Would be great news for S. Florida. Thanks for the post!

[Portastorm]

Hey Stormcenter, it might be great news for South Florida but would be horrific news for us in the Lone Star State.

Ugh, I feel my breakfast tacos coming back up .....

:?

[ameriwx2003]

Oh yes what a scenario and at day 16 the GFS still has it in the Gulf lol...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _384.shtml

[JetMaxx]

If Isabel tracks as the 12z GFS forecast, it would be the first hurricane of record to travel along 20-22N from 45W into the western Gulf of Mexico....a one of a kind.

I highly doubt this scenario will occur...IMHO Isabel is more likely to recurve and strike the Carolinas or remain at sea than this forecast path.
The vast majority of Atlantic hurricanes that reach 20N east of 50W....end up only disturbing ships, birds, and flying fish

PW

[southerngale]

Ugh Portastorm...more information than I needed.

Well well well....it does appear that the GOM is looking a bit more possible. Now what's going on at the Tex/Mex border?? Gigantic suction cup down there???

[Portastorm]

oops ... forgive me, Kelly!



A giant suction cup down in La Pesca or something? Who knows ... but the GOM has certainly seen its share of the action this year.

Like Perry (JetMaxx) wrote on this thread, this 12z GFS is suggesting a highly unlikely scenario. We all shouldn't get caught up with each model run until more definitive information is gathered by NOAA/NHC after they start flying aircraft into the storm.

[GalvestonDuck]

Well, if it does do that, which is highly unlikely -- then no crow for me!!

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... highlight=

My opinion of course. Cool front swept through at the end of last week and we have another one that should make it through come this Friday/Saturday morning. A stronger cool front should push through late Sunday/early Monday time frame. Does this mean Texas is in the clear as far as tropical systems is concerned. Not 100% but pretty close. Any thoughts?

SE TX - most likely.

S TX, not necessarily.

What if the ridge that is driving her westward (and soon, into a brief SW turn, according to other posts) continues to send her on a westward path after reaching (but hopefully not touching) the islands?

Doubtful, but still possible. I'm not ruling anything out til she's done.

[ameriwx2003]

Interesting comments from DT about the 12Z GFS:):)

12z GFS Isable to S Tx? By DT-wxrisk
FOLKS
The 12z GFS is takes Isabel into the FL strait and over Key west then keeps it due west ending up in Tx sept 23 .

That idea is BS. Here is why... First No Cape Verde hurricane has EVER form EAST of 40 W STAYED out of the Caribbean and movef due W along 22N -24 N ( More or less due west ) then crossed 70W... 80W.. 90 W to make landfall in SE TX.

yes Allen went more or less due W in 1980 but that was a CV hrricane that went INTO the caribbean NOT North of PR

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Second the Upper air pattern is very DIFFERENT from what the OTHER data is showing and what the earlier runs of the GFS showed.
BIG rule in medium range weather forecasting is that BIG changes from 1 run to the next are almost always wrong.

At 168 hrs (day 7) the 12z GFS Builds the Ridge NOT over Northeast and into the western atlantic BUT over the entire SE states.

This isnt correct and does not match the overall pattern (teleconnections) . With the mean trough over north central US and central canada... the ridge will be OFF in the western atlantic.... NOT over the SE states.

This ridge deflects isabel into the FL straits and into the Gulf.


Third the 12z GFS offers a massive pattern change --- instead of deep trough over the western US it has a shallow trough over the Pacific NW that lifts out and develops a ridge over the Plains.

Bottom Line is that the 12z GFS is BS.

[GalvestonDuck]

Guess I also should have clarified. The title of the earlier post was "Texas is all clear......" So when I said "SE TX - most likely. S TX, not necessarily," I was referring to being clear, not being hit.

[JetMaxx]

I agree with Dave T on this one....the GFS beyond 168 hours is prone to gross inaccuaracies....

The ECMWF has consistently progged Isabel along 20N passing north of the Leewards and Puerto Rico then a WNW course into the Bahamas toward SE Florida.
I put more stock in the ECMWF than the GFS regarding hurricanes any day of the week....

My forecast last night indicated a landfall point between Miami and Palm Beach...and I still feel the same today; that the MIA to PBI area is far more likely to experience this hurricane than the Florida Keys. I may change my theory when new data becomes available...especially when we get within the 168 hour window of the hurricane reaching longitude 80W, but certainly not because of one run of the extended GFS.

PW

[Josephine96]

Jet Maxx.. I am not a forecaster but I am gonna go a little further north.. I say anywhere between Melbourne and West Palm

[Guest]

Well I think the determining factor will be how long she goes West. You might never turn and head strait to Mexico. Still way to early to tell - but lets remember this has been a season of firsts - so why not the unlikely scenario here.

Patricia

[deb_in_nc]

As long as I'm about 100 miles S of landfall or completely out of it I'll be happy.

Debbie