Betsy's track
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sprinklerman
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Betsy's track
I was wondering if the models today would have anticiapted the track of Betsy? She went up the EC and then did a sharp 360 and looped around Florida and hit LA. Any thought s on that.
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McDowell Boricua
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Rainband
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McDowell Boricua
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WeatherEmperor
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weatherluvr
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BayouVenteux
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I was just thinking today about Betsy (38 years ago last night...my wife experienced the eye passing over her home as a 7 year old and remembers the terror VIVIDLY after all these years!) and her unexpected track. I have seen the archived prelim advisories that were issued back then all the way up to southern New England in anticipation of an expected Eastern seaboard run. Who'd a thought!? 
Tonight, models and conventional wisdom indicate that some sort of northward move is an eventual certainty...everyone on all the boards, the experts, the pros (as in that guy at Accuweather, capiche? 
) seem sold now on the east coast run or at the very least a Florida hit and a turn north.
Having seen historical evidence that conventional wisdom can be turned on it's head on rare occasions, I'll just keep my eye on Isabel until I AM SURE she's headed poleward for good.
Here's a prayer for the 3 S's...shear, subnormal SSTs or a seabound recurvature. Someone's gonna need all the help we can give on this one I'm afraid.
Tonight, models and conventional wisdom indicate that some sort of northward move is an eventual certainty...everyone on all the boards, the experts, the pros (as in that guy at Accuweather, capiche? ) seem sold now on the east coast run or at the very least a Florida hit and a turn north.
Having seen historical evidence that conventional wisdom can be turned on it's head on rare occasions, I'll just keep my eye on Isabel until I AM SURE she's headed poleward for good.
Here's a prayer for the 3 S's...shear, subnormal SSTs or a seabound recurvature. Someone's gonna need all the help we can give on this one I'm afraid.
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Andrew '92, Katrina '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Ida '21...and countless other lesser landfalling storms whose names have been eclipsed by "The Big Ones".
I remember relaxing at the Silver Sands Motel on Key Biscayne after the "all clear" regarding Betsy's path was given. We didn't have much time to enjoy our iced cocoa before my father came into the lounge and said tersely, "Come on..we have to go...Now". Betsy had made her loop,and was bearing down upon us. One of my most vivid memories of all time is that of being stuck in traffic on the Rickenbacker Causeway bridge to the mainland when that first nasty squall line roared over us. It was the first (and last) time I ever saw fear in my Father. He was a fifth generation Floridian, and knew that we were in real danger. Our heavy car rocked in the wind which seemed determined to push our four door v-8 right off the bridge and into the Bay. We made it of the bridge in time, but the experience changed me forever. Not only did I get a short course in the power of hurricanes and our human frailty, I developed a lasting fear of bridges, causeways, and overpasses of all sorts.
Betsy did teach me that it there is no such thing as an "all clear" as long as a hurricane lurks nearby. And that the concept of 'certainty' is an illusion. The closest I come to certainty regarding tropical systems is something tinged with irony..."you can probably bet that the storm in question will be anywhere other than where it is forecast to be". So even though models are strongly hinting at a Florida or SE threat (I'm in Miami) I still can't help but think that that means Isabel will likely end up somewhere else (the amazing accuracy of model guidance for Fabian notwithstanding). So, even as I watch the westward turn, I still think and hope and pray that it is too soon to tell, and nowhere near soon enough to know where in the world Isabel is going to make landfall, if at all. Thanks Betsy. In a perverse sort of way, my Betsy experience gives me hope, and lessens my anxiety, even when logically my worries should be on the rise.
Betsy did teach me that it there is no such thing as an "all clear" as long as a hurricane lurks nearby. And that the concept of 'certainty' is an illusion. The closest I come to certainty regarding tropical systems is something tinged with irony..."you can probably bet that the storm in question will be anywhere other than where it is forecast to be". So even though models are strongly hinting at a Florida or SE threat (I'm in Miami) I still can't help but think that that means Isabel will likely end up somewhere else (the amazing accuracy of model guidance for Fabian notwithstanding). So, even as I watch the westward turn, I still think and hope and pray that it is too soon to tell, and nowhere near soon enough to know where in the world Isabel is going to make landfall, if at all. Thanks Betsy. In a perverse sort of way, my Betsy experience gives me hope, and lessens my anxiety, even when logically my worries should be on the rise.
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