No big change Isabel continues to eye the Bahamas and FL

[John]

Good evening to all ... let me start with saying IMO there has been no major changes to my earlier posts, it still appears to me Hurricane Isabel will eye the Bahamas and the Central Florida coast with time. Tonight all of the objective Guidance Models are in pretty good agreement with a general West motion for the next 3 day's, thereafter some scatter begins with the GFDL the most right of the Models while the ECMWF is the southern most. Trying to forecast a Tropical System this far out is nearly impossible, That said here is my best shot tonight.

Warm water lies ahead of Isabel so im expecting further strengthening to occur. Isabel is moving in tandem with a Developing strong warm Ridge ... which is very strong at Mid to Upper levels over the Western Atlantic tonight, this Ridge is going to hold my friends and continue driving the Hurricane Westward for a while. Once again IMO there will be enough Ridging to bring Isabel into the central Bahamas by Mon, at that time I believe the Ridge starts to get shallow but not enough to cause the Hurricane to re curve off the Florida coast, but rather enough Ridging will be left to Stagger Isabel inland before the steering currents totally collapse stalling the Hurricane for a while. Isabel is likely to be 50 Miles either side of a line from WPB, as I was saying earlier today here the track would be further up the Florida coast rather than the south Florida coast because of the shallow ridging. As mentioned in the Tropical Weather Discussion it may be a good idea to start going over your Hurricanes preparations I believe you may need them.