Extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane Isabel continues to move westward. At 11 AM EDT the center of dangerous hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 21.4 north, longitude 54.5 west or about 535 miles east northeast of the nothern Leeward Islands. Isabel is moving towards the west at near 9 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Isabel has slowed it's forward speed over the past 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph with higher gusts. This makes Isabel a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the saffir simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and such will be the case for the next 24 hours. Isabel is only 5 mph shy of being a category 5 hurricane. A cat 5 hurricane has maximum sustained winds above 155 mph.
Estimated Minimum central pressure has dropped to 930 mb or 27.46 inches. Large ocean swells and dangerous rip currents will likely impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next several days.
What occurs beyond day 5 is a bit complicating. The position of the ridge to the north of the hurricane and the trough in the central United States wil be the key features in determining where Isabel impcts the US or if it directly impacts the United States at all. The threat is still very real to the US southeast coast by early next week. Thus early preparation and reviewing hurricane preparation plans maybe essential at this time for folks along the southeast US coast. As stated earlier, it's best to prepare early than not prepare at all. It'll save yourself alot of trouble!!! Areas threatened directly by Isabel are the eastern and notheastern Bahamas, Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas. Even the southeastern Virginia coast should monitor this carefully, especially if the trough in the central United States results in more of a turn up along the east coast, which is a posibility. The swath or forecast error is very great in days 5-7. Thus please keep watching and monitor Isabel very carefully along the southeast US coast as well as the Bahamas.
More updates a bit later.
Jim
Isabel::: currents-forecast-advice!!!!
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