Prime Time

[jfaul]

Ok,
i am in fort lauderdale and this hurricane is affecting my sleep, my job, my marriage, my eyes hurt from looking at the screen, and my brain hurts from trying to process forecasts discussions, posts, sats, models(thanks gfs), etc.

Clearly after reading this discussion there is no way that anybody from Florida to Canada is off the table..in fact, i am feeling like NHC likes more ridge than trough at this point. So, NHC seems to like a US strike and florida is not off the hook..there is no reason to believe that with a building high towards the end of this 5 day period that it can't move 270 like it has for the past few days and slam central/so florida.especially with a cat 4( i am assuming it doesnt stay 5 just because) and possibly creating its own track. Other scenarios seem just as likely but NC South seems to be in the bullseye with all this ridging. So have fun folks..i will be on this board all day. I am scheduled for a 6 day trip starting tuesday...if this thing is sitting SSE of Fort Lauderdale witha big Hig in place i have big decisions to make on Monday.

000
WTNT43 KNHC 120843
TCDAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2003

THERE ARE NO NEW CHANGES TO REPORT OR THAT CAN BE ADDED TO THE
STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF ISABEL AFTER THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
BASED ON THE OUSTANDING CLOUD PATTERN...SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT 140 KNOTS. REGARDLESS OF HOW THE CORE
STRUCTURE EVOLVES IN THE NEAR TERM...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

HERE COMES A LITTLE DISCUSSION ABOUT THE FOUR MAIN MODELS. THE GFDL
WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL...TURNS THE HURRICANE MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST...AND DEPENDING UPON THE RUN YOU
PICK...THE TURN OCCURS FARTHER TO THE WEST OR FARTHER TO THE EAST.
ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UK MODEL WHICH HAS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT
...MOVES THE HURRICANE FASTER AND BRING ISABEL DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO
THE U.S. COAST IN 5 DAYS. THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN CHANGING ITS TUNE
FROM RUN TO RUN...IS MUCH SLOWER AND IN 5 DAYS PLACES THE HURRICANE
ABOUT 450 N MI FROM THE U.S COAST. THE GFS EVENTUALLY BRINGS THE
CENTER NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN SEVERAL MORE DAYS.
FINALLY...THE NOGAPS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS UP TO 5 DAYS.

NOTE: THEY ALL HAVE IN COMMON THE DEVELOPMENT AND THE WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE BEYOND 5
DAYS. IF THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...THE HURRICANE COULD POSE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.

HAVING SAID ALL THAT...HERE COMES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ISABEL HAS
BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS AROUND A
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED. MOST IMPORTANTLY...DUE TO THE LARGE VARIATION IN
MODELS FROM RUN TO RUN...IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE WHAT PORTIONS
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST MIGHT BE AFFECTED BY ISABEL.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Aquawind]

I hear ya! Bummer on the trip timming.. Hope it's not a prepaid vacation..ugh.. Show your wife a Isabel sattelite loop and then the model run..she should then thank you..or another good trick is alternating from clicking the mouse and letting the loops load to having her sit next to you and rubbing her back while waiting ..

TBW Extended opinion FWIW.

EXTENDED (MON-THU)...CURRENT TPC TRACK HAS ISABEL NORTHEAST OF THE
BAHAMAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS WITHIN A DEGREE OF TPC POSITION
AT 120 HOURS...SO I GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7...
PUTTING THE STORM WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST AND KEEPING US ON THE DRY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST SIDE UNDER NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. I WILL GO WITH
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION NEXT WEEK...WITH THE CAVEAT THAT SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FUTURE TRACK OF ISABEL COULD MEAN FUTURE CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST.

[jfaul]

I hear ya! Bummer on the trip timming.. Hope it's not a prepaid vacation..ugh.. Show your wife a Isabel sattelite loop and then the model run..she should then thank you..or another good trick is alternating from clicking the mouse and letting the loops load to having her sit next to you and rubbing her back while waiting ..

TBW Extended opinion FWIW.

EXTENDED (MON-THU)...CURRENT TPC TRACK HAS ISABEL NORTHEAST OF THE
BAHAMAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS WITHIN A DEGREE OF TPC POSITION
AT 120 HOURS...SO I GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7...
PUTTING THE STORM WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST AND KEEPING US ON THE DRY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST SIDE UNDER NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. I WILL GO WITH
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION NEXT WEEK...WITH THE CAVEAT THAT SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FUTURE TRACK OF ISABEL COULD MEAN FUTURE CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST.

yeah wait till she finds out that a buddy of mine just called and wants to chase it and so do i...so the options are spend 5 days with my mother and father in law or 5 days driving aorund the east coast with a college buddy chasing a legendary landfalling hurricane. short of divorce i would say option 2 is what my 7 day forecast is. good news is we have a friend in charlotte so we have a base of operation if it goes up there..fort laud to isabel here we come

[WeatherEmperor]

I think the NHC knows or has an idea where Isabel will go but refrains from making that info available to the public cause they dont wanna cause any unecessary trouble. They know something we dont...

[jfaul]

I think the NHC knows or has an idea where Isabel will go but refrains from making that info available to the public cause they dont wanna cause any unecessary trouble. They know something we dont...

if there are any sightinings of max mayfield buying water or putting up shutters I suggest we all head for the hills in sofla, oh no there arent any hills in sofla ..hehe

[~SirCane]

Scary thing is, if it slams into South or Central Florida there's a possible double landfall as it churns through the Gulf.


And this is no CAT 1 Erin of 1995 either. This is a Monster! :?

[JCT777]

My productivity at work this week has been almost zilch, due to spending so much time following Isabel (and reading/posting here, of course ). And I am still staying with my idea of somewhere between S FL and Hatteras NC as the danger zone for a possible landfall.