Officials advise N.C. residents to prepare for a hurricane

[AussieMark]

The Associated Press


CHARLOTTE, N.C.


t's too early for forecasters to guess exactly where -or if - Hurricane Isabel will hit.

But that hasn't stopped worried officials in North Carolina from brushing up on evacuation plans.

With 160 mph winds and a path that has the entire East Coast nervous, Hurricane Isabel on Thursday became the first Atlantic storm in five years to reach Category 5 strength.

"It's going to be a very close call," said Peter Childs, a hurricane researcher at the N.C. State Climate Office.

Emergency officials along the eastern part of the state on Thursday were asking people to start getting ready for a hurricane now.

"We are in the middle of a very active hurricane season," said Mark Goodman, director of Onslow County Emergency Management. "It is just prudent to make kits and plans."

Two forces are at play: a trough of air over the central United States and a high-pressure ridge over the Atlantic.

The ridge's winds are pushing Isabel directly into the Southeast, with a chance it could strike anywhere from Florida to the Carolinas. But if the trough pushes eastward later next week, it could steer Isabel farther up the coast, possibly brushing the Outer Banks or forcing it back out to sea.

Isabel's track, size and intensity are very close to Hurricane Hugo's a week before it made landfall near Charleston in 1989 and cut a swath of destruction as far inland as Charlotte, Childs said.

Isabel is also the first hurricane to reach Category 5 since Mitch in 1998 - which killed thousands of people in Central America - and the first since Hugo to do so this far east, said Richard Knabb, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

It's unlikely to stay that way, though. Intense hurricanes generally fluctuate in strength, Knabb said, but there's nothing at this point that would weaken Isabel below a Category 3, with winds from 111 to 130 mph.

The storm is expected to follow its current track for the next four or five days. Moving at about 10 mph, it won't threaten the eastern United States until Thursday at the earliest.

While Isabel bears a resemblance to Hugo, the rivers, lakes and groundwater in the Carolinas are reminding climatologists of the conditions before Hurricane Floyd hit in 1999, spawning monster floods that killed more than 40 people and damaged or destroyed about 67,000 homes.

Floyd arrived a week after Hurricane Dennis saturated the eastern third of the Carolinas.

This year's heavy spring and summer storms could have a similar effect, said Ryan Boyles with the N.C. State Climate Office. Much of the state has received 50 percent more rain than normal.

"It's not going to take much before it all goes to runoff," he said. "If we have a lot of rain out of this storm, we could see some real problems."

The saturated soil could contribute to wind damage as well, Boyles said. Trees are more easily toppled by storms when the ground under them is soggy.

State officials and utilities used the advance warning of Isabel to ramp up their preparations Thursday.

"This thing is a monster," said Guynn Savage with Duke Power in Charlotte, whose in-house meteorologists are closely watching the storm. Duke officials met earlier this week with county emergency management directors from throughout the Carolinas.

Residents can put together a family disaster kit with water, non-perishable food, flashlights, batteries and a radio. Even if Isabel avoids eastern North Carolina, the kit could come in handy should another hurricane strike the region.

Goodman said residents should also put together a hurricane plan that details whether they will evacuate, where they will go and what they will do.

"This is certainly a storm to be watched," Goodman said. "The storm is 600 miles wide. It doesn't have to come here to impact us. It has 60 miles of hurricane force winds extending from the center."

If Isabel does threaten the state, coastal residents buying plywood to board up their homes will find prices at all-time highs.

Supplies of plywood are low nationally, due in part to wet weather in the East and fires in the West. But home-improvement stores say they're having no problem staying stocked at their normal levels.