If Isabel is 920 mb and 160 mph now...

[JetMaxx]

I've just gotten off the phone with a veteran NWS forecaster I've known for twenty years, and we were discussing the intensity of hurricane Isabel late yesterday afternoon...when we both believe she peaked in intensity.

If recon is finding 160 mph winds (based on flight level winds of 180 mph/ 156 kt) and a central pressure of 920 mb at this time....Isabel had to be even stronger late yesterday. I estimate from the Dvorak images the central pressure was in the 905-910 mb range...or very similar to both hurricane Mitch and Camille...with sustained surface winds likely 170-180 mph.

I remarked to several friends over dinner last evening that hurricane Isabel looked a lot like hurricane Allen in 1980 (and Mitch in 1998).....because IMO..and this veteran NWS forecaster friend's opinion....late yesterday afternoon, Isabel was likely as intense as Allen and Mitch (in the same central pressure range).

I just wish to high heaven they'd gotten a recon plane out there yesterday....because if they had,I suspect we'd have seen a new record low central pressure record established for that area of the Atlantic Ocean (920-925 mb or so is about as low as anything I've ever found in that area).

[JCT777]

Perry - completely agree that yesterday evening, Isabel had higher winds and a lower pressure.

[JetMaxx]

I feel vindicated....in addition to the NWS forecaster agreeing with my analysis....NHC forecaster Jack Beven just said the same thing...that Isabel was likely stronger late yesterday than today.

[Anonymous]

There was absolutely no excuse for them not to recon the storm SOMEHOW when they routinely send recon to 40kt TS's in at 56W .. I don't know if it was budgetary, political, or what, but it was a poor poor decision from a scientific standpoint.

[ColinD]

There was absolutely no excuse for them not to recon the storm SOMEHOW when they routinely send recon to 40kt TS's in at 56W .. I don't know if it was budgetary, political, or what, but it was a poor poor decision from a scientific standpoint.

Political? Is Isabel a conservative or a liberal? Let's watch and see if she bends left or right to find out.

[JetMaxx]

Rich...I agree with you 100%

[GalvestonDuck]

First of all, Rich -- welcome! I recognize you from *ahem* that other board.

Second, how far out can they fly recons? I mean, they have to have enough fuel to fly out there, gather the data, and fly back? So how close does the storm need to be before they go?

Thanks!

[JetMaxx]

Usually west of 55° West....they fly from Puerto Rico. That's why I can't understand for the life of me WHY they didn't fly a research mission late Thursday when this monster was at it's peak....it was at 55 W...

FYI - Back in the "old days", they flew recon much farther out than now.
The first US Navy recon into hurricane Donna in 1960 was near 14N and 49W -- they found 120 kt winds at flight level and a central pressure of 973 mb.