Isabel forecast #4: 6 p.m. EST SEP 12

[JetMaxx]

My analysis is basically unchanged except the landfall point slightly farther north and a slightly faster forward speed.....

Currently: FRI SEP 12
6 PM EST...21.8N - 58.8W...140 KTS

Forecast:

SAT SEP 13
6 AM EST...21.8N - 60.2W...140 KTS
6 PM EST...22.0N - 62.2W...140 KTS

SUN SEP 14
6 AM EST...22.2N - 64.0W...130 KTS
6 PM EST...22.5N - 65.8W...135 KTS

MON SEP 15
6 AM EST...23.0N - 67.9W...135 KTS
6 PM EST...23.6N - 70.0W...130 KTS

TUE SEP 16
6 AM EST...24.1N - 71.3W...125 KTS
6 PM EST...24.8N - 72.6W...120 KTS

WED SEP 17
6 AM EST...26.0N - 74.3W...120 KTS
6 PM EST...27.0N - 76.02...115 KTS (60-70 NE of Great Abaco Island)


Extended Forecast:

THU SEP 18
6 AM EST...28.2N - 77.3W...110 KTS
6 PM EST...29.5N - 79.0W...110 KTS

FRI SEP 19
6 AM EST...31.2N - 80.2W...115 KTS (Approaching Savannah, GA)
6 PM EST...33.0N - 82.0W...INLAND-75 KTS (25 south of Augusta, GA)

[JetMaxx]

**My highest strike/threat area extends from Daytona Beach, Florida to the NC/SC border near Myrtle Beach -- Savannah and the GA/SC border are currently the highest strike probability IMO).

[WeatherEmperor]

Nicely done indeed.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

6 PM EST...33.0N - 82.0W...INLAND-75 KTS (25 south of Augusta, GA)



:o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o

[JetMaxx]

Nicely done indeed.

Thanks!

[ColdFront77]

Perry, I remember you had your forecast landfall further south of Daytona Beach, Florida to the NC/SC border (near Myrtle Beach).

[JetMaxx]

No Tom, what you remember is my first two forecasts brought the hurricane through the Bahamas, passing near Nassau....and in the general direction of Palm Beach and Jupiter, Florida....due to the ECMWF and LBAR both in agreement of such a path...

What is the problem? There isn't a forecaster alive that doesn't adjust their forecast as new model data becomes available. Check the boards tonight -- Mike Watkins, Derek Orrt, and the National Hurricane Center have ALL shifted their forecast to the right in the past couple of days....so has DT -- from a likely South Florida landfall several days ago to a DelMarva landfall tonight....and Dave forecasts for a living...a highly respected meteorologist. If he isn't ashamed to shift his forecast track as new data becomes available...I'm sure as hell not.

In all honesty, I probably haven't shifted mine enough to the right....but am patient and intelligent enough to await data from the NOAA jet being added to the 00z model runs tomorrow...because I suspicion the ridge north of Isabel is somewhat stronger than percieved currently by the model suites.