A sign of Isabels future track

ameriwx2003 · #1 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 5:18 pm

I have noticed on this satellite loop that the outflow is getting drawn up to the N/NW ahead of Isabel.. Is this a sign of a more W/NW or NW turn down the road??

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#2 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 5:22 pm

Wonder what that clump of storms/rain by the bahamas will do? If anything?

ColinD · #3 Postby **ColinD** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 5:22 pm

Good question. HOW WELL of a predictor of near-term future track is the orientation of outflow?

Rainband · #4 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 5:24 pm

ameriwx2003 wrote:I have noticed on this satellite loop that the outflow is getting drawn up to the N/NW ahead of Isabel.. Is this a sign of a more W/NW or NW turn down the road??

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

The forecast doesn't turn it for days :roll:

Odd ...maybe it will be a fish

Rainband · #5 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 5:29 pm

Second thought..Looks like she is interacting with the ridge of high pressure to the north?? Hope the models didn't underestimate the strength of the ridge??? :roll:

:o

#6 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 5:29 pm

what would that mean??

Rainband · #7 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 5:35 pm

charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:what would that mean??

Ask the "pros" but from what I hear if the high is stronger it may build west keeping Isabel on a western track longer or till landfall :o

ChaserUK · #8 Postby **ChaserUK** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 5:37 pm

well I made it to Devon, 4 hour trip - what have I missed??

opera ghost · #9 Postby **opera ghost** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 5:39 pm

ameriwx2003 wrote:I have noticed on this satellite loop that the outflow is getting drawn up to the N/NW ahead of Isabel.. Is this a sign of a more W/NW or NW turn down the road??

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I'd say not- but lemmie explain why. You see in the first few frames- the draw of the outflow bands to the north is noticable. You also see how the yellow part near the eye is mishapen with a draw to the north. You can also see on a water vapor map of the same thing- the same occurances- whatever it is that's drawing that band of storms was mishaping Issy.

Right inbetween frames 4 and 6- Issy lets go of that band. The light blue outerband around the eye cuts under that mishapen chunk liek a butter knife- removing it from the main storm. In the last frame- you can see it moving off as a band of rainstorms- but no longer connected to Issy.

Notice ALSO that AS that northern band of storms is being cut off- the main yellow of Issy rebounds to the south, elongating the storm southernly- NOT northernly. I'd say that EITHER:

A) A slight bobble to the south should be expected shortly
OR
B) The storm continues on it's westwardly course and the southern expansion is reabsorbed into the rest of the storm (Bulling that chunk of it northerly)- strengthening it.

But that's just my humble opinion

Rainband · #10 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 5:42 pm

seems like in the WV loop the high is building south or southwest!! :roll:

Could be a GOMER YET!! :roll:

#11 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 5:52 pm

I have been looking at the sat loops for a while. I am no professional, but what I see right now in the satellite loops disturbs me a little. Call me a wishcaster if you want, but it appears to me the trough to the N has bypassed Isabel completely and that the ridge is building back in. Wven the Henri remnants appear to be of little consequence and will be inland in 36 hrs. max. None of the other features I see appear to be having an effect on her either and she is moving straigh W or wobbling WSW occasionally. There is still no hint of the expectes WNW start which was progged to begin by now and at the latest in about 12 hours. Looking further west and seeing the trough that came through here earlier today(thank you for a GORGEOUS AFTERNOON!!!), it appears to me that it will also be out of the way-to far N- to be of any effect either by the time Isabel gets close to the East coast. Maybe some of this will cause a slight weakness in the ridge, but I am having my doubts at this time. What does this mean? If I am right-AND I PRAY I AM NOT!-I do not see the turn happening anytime before a landfall along the SE coast no furhter North than Southern Georgia and I think that may be stretching it. With all this said I do realize I am reaching out far ahead of what is easily prognosticated. AS ALWAYS WITH HURRICANES WE WAIT AND SEE.

Josephine96 · #12 Postby **Josephine96** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 5:59 pm

Not -removed-.. I think you make very valid points.. I'm on pins and needles here in Central Florida cause I don't see anything that would yank her out of the way

chris_fit · #13 Postby **chris_fit** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 6:23 pm

Good points vbhoutex, I'm afraid i agree

~Chris

#14 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 6:31 pm

John...frankly...if you don't see it...you're not looking

You've got troughing over you at 500 mb at 96 hours and that trough deepns. All the models which are worth a darn show the system gaining latitude (and this is only 4 days out). The storm is rounding the ridge . At day 5 there is a trof in the eastern gulf and there are 20 kt winds at the steering level over all of Florida. Now...you can trust me...I'm a Pro Met...that will turn her. All of the models show that trough in the eastern GOM.

Those models verifying are a different story. However...you made the statement that you did not see anything. Well...it is there. All you have to do is look. We are not looking 292 hours out now...but 120 hours. The models are not going to be off that much so that that trough that should protect Florida is not going to be there and instead there will be a ridge over GA.SC. After all...IF you are to get this storm...that ridge has to be nosed into there and that trough in the eastern GOM can't be there.

So...it is not a matter of yanking her out of the way. It is also not a matter of her building her own environment. She is not large enough to do that. First of all, storms building their own environment are rare. Second...they must be large storms because you needs large amounts of latent heat release of condensation. Third...it only works on minor short wave troughs. The biggest baddest hurricanes in the world will recurve in the face of a longwave trough.

So...get off you pins and needles. Be alert and prepared. However there is model evidence (overwhelming) that Florida is under less and less a threat. It will likely come within 300 miles or so of you and you may even see some cirrus. Probably will actually be hot

There is ONE caviat that WILL be answered tomorrow: What happens when the GIV data is ingested into the models? That will be very important.

#15 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 6:33 pm

Florida looks good. This does not appear to be a Florida storm. Max Mayfield said it himself on Channel 10 news.

#16 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 6:35 pm

Very interesting! :wink:

In your opinion, what chances does SC have of getting her? 0%-100%.....I know a lot is involved, but your opinion at this point, please. Thanks!

ColdFront77 · #17 Postby **ColdFront77** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 7:01 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Florida looks good. This does not appear to be a Florida storm. Max Mayfield said it himself on Channel 10 news.

I wouldn't think the National Hurricane Center Director would make such a bold statement with a ridge building. Even southern Florida should monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Isabel.

#18 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 7:03 pm

Well...let's throw out some #'s:
Fl:5%
Ga:5%
SC:10%
NC:25%
VA-My:20%
De-Ny:15%
Fish:20%

#19 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 7:04 pm

Thanks! Thats interesting! :wink:

chris_fit · #20 Postby **chris_fit** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 7:05 pm

Fl:40%
Ga:5%
SC:10%
NC:40%
VA-My:3%
De-Ny:1%
Fish:1%

~Chris

A sign of Isabels future track

A sign of Isabels future track

Re: A sign of Isabels future track

Re: A sign of Isabels future track

Who is online