Looks like Isabel is building her own environment

[John]

A few points about Isabel this evening, Isabel is still rolling toward the West, I don't see this changing anytime soon unless im missing something here, the longer term tracking with me remains open for debate. Isabel tonight is having her way and is basically controlling her own destiny folks, if any of you care to have a look use the WV imagery, im going to include the link at the end of this post. As seen in WV imagery the ridging N of the Hurricane is expanding Westward, this is best noted by looking at Isabel's outflow to her North, she is pumping a tun of heat into that ridge, if you open the WV loop take your finger and place it on 60 W and 30N, now look at the loop, you will see the Dry Ridging Nose out past 60 W. NW of Isabel's eye. The Hurricane is moving slow but the ridge is building Westward faster. IMO this is going to play a major roll in the future track with Isabel, should she continue to move slow she will miss the weakness well before the second Ridge in NE Canada reloads. More later.
John
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

meaning......??

[Josephine96]

Charleston.. I'm no expert but I think it means.. very little if any turn North, and the chance of a Florida hit goes up again

[Vortex]

Again these are the factors we deal with with slow moving storms. If one looks at the strongest of storms over history there is one common theme aside from there strength and that is once on a set course they tend to stay on that course for some time.

[John]

As long at she remains as strong as she is, she will basically control her own destiny no matter what the Models are saying. This is one reason NHC is using the term Dubious in there last two discussions. We are not talking about a Category 2 here. Isabel has a very large outflow system going and you just cannot stop that kind of engine, it has to slow down all by it's self. Expect her heading to be West until she has had enough than she will possibly surrender to features that will be stronger than her but not until.

[dixiebreeze]

So glad you posted this John. I've been saying this all day in one way or another, though I likened Isabel to a locomotive who has all the control of signals and switches. She is indeed, IMHO, controlling her own destiny and I don't see any trough in the future strong enough to pull her off on a rail spur. The ridge rules.

[stormernie]

Note, that the Hurricane has been moving slightly south of due west as it did last night. These wobbles or more permanent wobbles are trending now more often then not. This basically washes out any movement to the north of west. I am still very skeptical of this forecasted turn. As fast as these models went from the Florida straits to the Northeast US, they can go back to Florida. We need to watch this Hurricane very carefully.

Ernie

[slosh]

Very interesting John, sounds logical. The issue seems like it really comes down to timing. Do you expect Isabel forward speed to stay about the same? What factors would cause an increase in speed?

[dixiebreeze]

I should add... I also agree she is building her own enviroment, much in the way Gilbert and Mitch did and may actually be adding strength to the steering ridge.

[calidoug]

Stormernie, I note that the storm is NOT moving S of due W, as a moment's glance at the current coordinates and comparison to previous coordinates will reveal.

Yes, the eye makes very shallow arcing movements, but the sum of these has been a just slightly N of W movement. That's why the latitude is a bigger number now than it was 12 hours ago.

I'm not sure it's going to turn much either, but why imagine S movement that simply isn't there?

It helps to estimate coordinates from large static pictures and compare with previous coordinates, rather than try to eyeball loops.

Doug

[rob8303]

OMG :o :o We are in for one heck of a mess. Evacuations ordered early next week KEY WEST TO WILMINGTON, NC? I was hoping to come on and find out Isabel had magically turned out to sea. lol.

[zoeyann]

Calidoug, the storm eye itself is starting a southwest wobble, but it has been doing this as well as northwest west wobbles. You are right the the general motion is slightly north of due west, but I think stormernie was refering to how it is wobbling right now.

[soonertwister]

Nobody predicted Mitch to turn SW like he did. All the guidance said he would brush the YP and head into the GOM. About a week later he reversed direction over land and headed toward FL.

These Cat-5 storms are a breed among themselves. They seem to go wherever they want to go, guidance be darned.

Some, like Gilbert, just take pretty much a straight run to land. Others, like Mitch, defy all guidance.

If I was a betting man, I would say that unless Isabel weakens considerably, she is going to continue for a while on the same general course. This is not based on science but on many years of observing tropical systems.

She's the baddest thing on the block, so we'd better pay attention to what she says.

Right now Isabel looks a lot more like Gilbert or Andrew than Mitch.

[fla_girl]

excellent post john, and i agree with dixie. it's just too dang early to tell.

[dixiebreeze]

Well put Sooner. Agree 100 percent.

[vbhoutex]

This has been my point all along! I just haven't said it right I guess. Good discussion everyone!

[dixiebreeze]

VB, John did a great job leading off the discussion with a very pointed analysis, sans bells and whistle -- just the all too apparent factors involved in Isabels futher track.

[HurricaneQueen]

While I agree with nearly everything that is being said on this thread, isn't this westward movement exactly what has been predicted for the near term (for a 3 day period)? This is just a guess but from everything I've read, she can pretty much control her own destiny as a Cat 5 but as she loses intensity, the atmospheric conditions around her will have a greater influence. Thus as her strength diminishes, as anticipated, there is a much better chance for the wnw-nw turn. As I see it, the longer she remains a potent storm, the further west she will come and the greater risk to Florida. Am I understanding this correctly? In other words, the weaker she becomes, the more chance of the northern movement. Comments, please, but be gentle. :?

(Obviously, I'm not knowledgable enough to do much posting. I've been a member for almost a year and only have 25 or so posts)

[Biloxi]

Excellent synopsis of the current situation. I appreciate the thought and analysis that the posters with weather forecast backgrounds, post. Their analysis of models are well thought out and very instructive. I do however, agree with you, that Hurricanes like Izzy - most definitely create "their own environment" and the models just don't get it. Your take on the sat. loop, IMO - is correct. When it comes down to it, sometimes it's the best type of observation - It is whats happening now. I also believe that there is a great deal of credibility to the "freight train" effect. It just seems hard to imagine this hurricane changing direction anytime soon. I hope we are wrong and she turns out to sea, that would certainly be a blessing.

[dixiebreeze]

HQ, yes, I think you're basically correct in your assumption (IMHO). However, I personally think she would have to become very much weakened to fall prey to a weak trough. It does seem the strength of the trough is somewhat in question.