00:00 UTC Tropical model suite

[cycloneye]

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03091300

The BAMD model is the more north of the 4 tropical models but the others are clustered more to the south.

[Derek Ortt]

The only one of those worth anything is the BMAD. The BAMM is for medium depth systems, not a super hurricane. A98-E is persistence, send that to the dung pile. and LBAR, well, it is a pile of dung. However, BAMD has shifted left of its previous run. Waiting for the official data output (Which I have to plot this evening for a presentation tomorrow). The 03Z forecast may be later than usual due to this

[cycloneye]

Yeah Derek now I noticed the BAMD shift to the left but the more north of the suite.That may be a signal to watch for as the globals runs come in later on especially UKMET.

[stormernie]

Are these models now being run with the new information from the NOAA planes sampling the enviroment?

Ernie

[cycloneye]

No Ernie Noaa survelliance jet goes tommorow night so that information that the models will digest will have to wait for tommorow night runs.

[Air Force Met]

Acactlly Derek...in these models...for this storm...the BAMD is the only one worth taking a look at. Don't even look at the others for giggles. Well...if you want giggles look...other than that...

[floydchaser]

Noted that the 18z GFDL already had this system turning to 290 at this time. Isabel, however, continues west...lending support to the UKMET solution. I've been somewhat skeptical of the GFDL, though it has been fairly consistent in a turn. However, the farther west that Isabel goes without any real indication of a northward turn, the more I am considering throwing this model out until it gets the better data tomorrow night. Taking into account tonight's EURO, combined with this continued west movement, the window of opportunity for recurvature to sea is starting to close.

[Derek Ortt]

I have to plot them all (about 15-20), just to show the spread in the guidance.


For forecasting, anything not named BAMD, belongs on the pile of dung (though in the atcf there are many more that are useful)

[HurricaneQueen]

Derek:

I know better than to question you but I respect your opinions so: If BAMD is the best solution right now, that puts it closer to Bermuda than the CONUS at approx. 31/72 in 120 hours. Does this mean it has a better chance to go out to sea than hit the coast or is another recurvature in the future?

Thanks,
Lynn

[wxman57]

Beware the BAMM/BAMD in mid-latitudes! These models are best suited for the deep tropics - south of 20N where there are fewer atmospheric changes. The BAMM/BAMD are very simplistic models in that they remove the storm's circulation and look at the general flow of the atmosphere. There are very few, if any, dynamic calculations. These models assume a static atmosphere, basically. But the atmosphere is not at all static north of 20-25N, so the BAMM and BAMD may have serioius problems as they don't take into account passing weather systems like fronts/highs/lows..

[jfaul]

The only one of those worth anything is the BMAD. The BAMM is for medium depth systems, not a super hurricane. A98-E is persistence, send that to the dung pile. and LBAR, well, it is a pile of dung. However, BAMD has shifted left of its previous run. Waiting for the official data output (Which I have to plot this evening for a presentation tomorrow). The 03Z forecast may be later than usual due to this

i agree but you have acess to the ATCF file..wy keep running them if they are so bad?