Cut and dry you are correct about the Discussion, I posted about Isabel building the ridge out ahead of her tonight and this is basically what is being said tonight about tandem movement, Major Hurricanes will often control themselves, you seem to understand the dynamics that are going on here with the Hurricane. IMO she is likely to tuck in closer to the West, I still can't find that darn turn switch.
John
Dixiebreeze
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dixiebreeze
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Yeah I don't know John. I too cannot buy the EC solution. The way tht she is orinted, if you look at the NW quad, you see what looks to be the ridge building/spreading westward almost a beat ahead of her. Just don't see a right turn at all, specially from a flimsy trough that won't get through Georgia. Now that the BAMD has shifted a bit left...well....think there may be some surprises when new data comes in...or maybe not. She may become independent of the models, cause I don't know if models handle these situations well when the hurricanes driving. Jury still definitely out. I know one thing, if she hasn't broken 25N by the time she crosses 70W, someone in the south is in trouble.
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Steve H. wrote:Yeah I don't know John. I too cannot buy the EC solution. The way tht she is orinted, if you look at the NW quad, you see what looks to be the ridge building/spreading westward almost a beat ahead of her. Just don't see a right turn at all, specially from a flimsy trough that won't get through Georgia. Now that the BAMD has shifted a bit left...well....think there may be some surprises when new data comes in...or maybe not. She may become independent of the models, cause I don't know if models handle these situations well when the hurricanes driving. Jury still definitely out. I know one thing, if she hasn't broken 25N by the time she crosses 70W, someone in the south is in trouble.
Still have time. I think I'll wait for the high-altitude data to be inputted into the model runs.
SF
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