Should start moving WNW in about 2-3 hours???

[Frank P]

Looking at the latest NHC's forecast map Isabel shows a pronounced WNW projected motion when it gets to 60W... Using the latest IR GOES sat pix, which is about an or so hour old, I have the center at 21.89N and 59.65W, so it can be assumed at its present rate of speed it should be at 60W in 2-3 hours.... then per the NHC the WNW track kicks in, and on the forecast map it's a delineated WNW too.... if you get up in the morning and it still moving W or just north of due west.... throw out the models baby.... she starts that WNW track after midnight then the NHC has a pretty good handle on this system...

I think what transpires during the next 6 hours will be one of the first critical moments in the projected track... something to watch for carefully and to see if it comes to fruition.... IMO

I don't think I'd bet against the NHC right now.... but they've been wrong before

[Stormcenter]

She better or the SE Florida coast should start really worrying.

[bev1]

The models through themselves out. They are constantly changing as always.

[bayouwxman]

Looking at the latest NHC's forecast map Isabel shows a pronounced WNW projected motion when it gets to 60W... Using the latest IR GOES sat pix, which is about an or so hour old, I have the center at 21.89N and 59.65W, so it can be assumed at its present rate of speed it should be at 60W in 2-3 hours.... then per the NHC the WNW track kicks in, and on the forecast map it's a delineated WNW too.... if you get up in the morning and it still moving W or just north of due west.... throw out the models baby.... she starts that WNW track after midnight then the NHC has a pretty good handle on this system...

I'm not one to pick on the NHC because I'm actually in the minority who believes they've done a pretty good job this year....but...that forecast track you reference is very much a reflection of the model guidance. I suspect the turn will occur...just not quite that quick.[/quote]

[janswizard]

Is it my imagination or is she starting to wobble north?

[ericinmia]

It just finished rebuilding its eye, thus it is a little ragged right now.

wait another hour or more to see how the eye re-shapes and then it will be easier to see a woble from the previous eye to the new one!

-eric

[TampaFl]

Looking at the latest NHC's forecast map Isabel shows a pronounced WNW projected motion when it gets to 60W... Using the latest IR GOES sat pix, which is about an or so hour old, I have the center at 21.89N and 59.65W, so it can be assumed at its present rate of speed it should be at 60W in 2-3 hours.... then per the NHC the WNW track kicks in, and on the forecast map it's a delineated WNW too.... if you get up in the morning and it still moving W or just north of due west.... throw out the models baby.... she starts that WNW track after midnight then the NHC has a pretty good handle on this system...

I think what transpires during the next 6 hours will be one of the first critical moments in the projected track... something to watch for carefully and to see if it comes to fruition.... IMO

I don't think I'd bet against the NHC right now.... but they've been wrong before

Well Frank as you said , "Throw out the models baby". Latest loop still shows Isabel moving almost due west Latitude 22N :o :o :o . Time will tell.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Robert

[Deenac813]

Bill Kamal (my local met) stated that the models are only good for 6 hours so we should still keep an eye on Isabel.. From what I have seen I think he is right.. them seem to change all the time.


Deena

[jfaul]

Bill Kamal (my local met) stated that the models are only good for 6 hours so we should still keep an eye on Isabel.. From what I have seen I think he is right.. them seem to change all the time.


Deena

only good for 6 hours? in ever heard him say that..please explain

[Toni - 574]

Hey Frank..... still west!!

[Deenac813]

Bill Kamal (my local met) stated that the models are only good for 6 hours so we should still keep an eye on Isabel.. From what I have seen I think he is right.. them seem to change all the time.


Deena

only good for 6 hours? in ever heard him say that..please explain

That is what he said last night.. I am assuming he was stating they are only good until the next advisory..

Deena

[jfaul]

Bill Kamal (my local met) stated that the models are only good for 6 hours so we should still keep an eye on Isabel.. From what I have seen I think he is right.. them seem to change all the time.


Deena

only good for 6 hours? in ever heard him say that..please explain

That is what he said last night.. I am assuming he was stating they are only good until the next advisory..

Deena

he was -removed-..hehe

hey did you see channel 10 promoing extended newsacasts and 1/2 hour special tonight on isabel..that is overhype big time for a storm that never gets close to sofla

[Deenac813]

he was -removed-..hehe

hey did you see channel 10 promoing extended newsacasts and 1/2 hour special tonight on isabel..that is overhype big time for a storm that never gets close to sofla

You have got to be kidding me!! I am an insurance agent & no wonder we had over 100 calls yesterday asking about policies & seeing if they can get coverage.. UGH!! I wish they would wait until they are more sure before they scare everyone.. I like they way Bill Kamal has been handling this so far.. he is stating we are watching it but it is still far away.

Deena