A word about the 0Z GFS

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obxhurricane
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A word about the 0Z GFS

#1 Postby obxhurricane » Fri Sep 12, 2003 11:37 pm

Not sure what is going on here, but look at the 24 hour forecast. It has Isabel still sitting on 60W. Pretty funny considering the eye is about to cross over 60W. Not sure how this will play out for the rest of the forecast...but assuming Isabel crosses 60W tonight and tomorrow I would have to say that the 0Z run is suspect and might need to be discounted altogether. Just an observation...continue on.
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#2 Postby Stormsfury » Fri Sep 12, 2003 11:41 pm

Supposedly, the GiV data was incorporated into this run.

They were out there today under the URNT40 NOAA header.

Very strange ...

SF
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mel38
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plz explain

#3 Postby mel38 » Fri Sep 12, 2003 11:42 pm

stormfury?
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#4 Postby floydchaser » Fri Sep 12, 2003 11:43 pm

I thought that was for tomorrow night's run.
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#5 Postby obxhurricane » Fri Sep 12, 2003 11:43 pm

Yeah...that's what I dont get. The gulf stream data was used for the 0Z cycle. I dunno...pretty weird...unless of course it stalls out there like right now...which I don't think is going to happen.
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#6 Postby ameriwx2003 » Fri Sep 12, 2003 11:49 pm

Hmmmm.. I thought the GIV flight wasn't supposed to be out until Tomorrow???
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#7 Postby floydchaser » Fri Sep 12, 2003 11:49 pm

It's clear that the motion of the hurricane is very important as to where it ends up. Those models that have trended slower with it have it farther east in the long range. The faster models have it farther west. Given the stall by the GFS, which appears unlikely, this run can be thrown out.
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Re: A word about the 0Z GFS

#8 Postby Scott_inVA » Sat Sep 13, 2003 12:03 am

obxhurricane wrote:Not sure what is going on here, but look at the 24 hour forecast. It has Isabel still sitting on 60W. Pretty funny considering the eye is about to cross over 60W. Not sure how this will play out for the rest of the forecast...but assuming Isabel crosses 60W tonight and tomorrow I would have to say that the 0Z run is suspect and might need to be discounted altogether. Just an observation...continue on.


It looks like the 0Z has hocked another loogie :o at least through 120 hours which is all that's there ATTM.

Seems it parks Izzy east of Florida and the Ridge squashes it until the trof swoops down from the Midwest. Horse hockey...again.

Expect it to jump back to NC/VA (not -removed- this come and visit me...but that's how I'm leaning).

Scott
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