Isabel NO LONGER a category 5...weakening..

JetMaxx · #1 Postby **JetMaxx** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 12:47 am

Latest vortex fix shows the central pressure has risen 15 mb since 3 p.m.....now 935 mb and flight level winds in the SW or "weak" quadrant only 100 kts (were 128 kts earlier today).

It's very unlikely Isabel has winds in the NE quadrant high enough to justify a cat-5 ranking....

The cause? Eyewall replacement is likely a factor. The hurricane hunters report two eyewalls....25 and 35 n mi in diameter. The outer eyewall is contracting inward and "strangling" the inner eyewall...causing the hurricane to weaken. We'll have to see if Isabel regains cat-5 status tomorrow...my theory is no.

Aquawind · #2 Postby **Aquawind** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 5:57 am

You called it ..CAT 4 today..no surprises..

wrkh99 · #3 Postby **wrkh99** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 6:12 am

Will be back to a cat 5 soon

Anonymous · #4 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 6:52 am

I agree I think cat 5 also sometime today or tonight.

Colin · #5 Postby **Colin** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 7:54 am

I agree...absolutely NO reason to think this will not become a Cat 5 again.

#6 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 8:18 am

Guys, what is your reasoning as to why Isabel will regain her CAT5 status? I am not disagreeing necessarily, but would like to know why you think this will happen when all progs say it is not probable.

mf_dolphin · #7 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 8:22 am

I don't know if it will make CAT5 again anythime soon. The outflow looks to be improving again over the last couple of hours. According to my plots on Fabian, Isabel should be crossing Fabian's path in the next 24 hours or so. Watch, wait and prepare are still the words of the day as far as I'm concerned :-)

JetMaxx · #8 Postby **JetMaxx** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:39 am

That was my reasoning Isabel wouldn't regain cat-5 status....she will pass over the wake of upwelled water left by Fabian...and by the time she's west of it, the increasing shear will become a factor....

I'm not saying Isabel is falling apart....a 140-150 mph hurricane is very dangerous, especially one the size of Isabel...and I expect her to maintain cat-4 status for at least the next 48-72 hours, if not longer.

#9 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:56 am

Dolphin, NHC said in an earlier advisory they don't expect much cooling from Fabian upwelling, so..... she probably will remain somewhat weakened for a while, but have a resurgence as she nears the warmer SSTs of the Bahamas IMHO.

Isabel NO LONGER a category 5...weakening..

Isabel NO LONGER a category 5...weakening..

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