More concern for Florida again...?

Josephine96 · #1 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 8:22 am

I believe the shift of concern as it has been jumping around anyway remains high for Florida.. It's still a WestWard moving storm and the WNW movement is supposed to begin now if not momentarily and I don't see anything that would make it go WNW..

She's a monster... Local mets here yesterday said the closest she'd get to the coast is about 300 miles.. I don't buy that..

Isabel needs to change direction very soon or us Floridians are in a lot of trouble.. I think we're still in trouble lol..

Josephine96 · #2 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 8:26 am

and by the way... good morning to all those in the room who keep squashing this post lol just kidding..

chris_fit · #3 Postby **chris_fit** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 8:30 am

Morning John,

Izzy looks like $H1T this morning (well compared to yesterday

) but anyhoo, looks like it has shifted to the north a little, not enough for comfort but that High is ominent

~Chris

Josephine96 · #4 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 8:31 am

Yeah.. It's moving very tiny steps to the north.. but otherwise still due west...

Ominent? lol..

chris_fit · #5 Postby **chris_fit** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 8:34 am

Josephine96 wrote:Yeah.. It's moving very tiny steps to the north.. but otherwise still due west...

Ominent? lol..

Gahhhh, I think I'm still feeling some of the Absolut from last night.... i meant to say EMINENT as in:
Towering or standing out above others; prominent: an eminent peak.
Of high rank, station, or quality; noteworthy: eminent members of the community.
Outstanding, as in character or performance; distinguished

Cheers!
~Chris

#6 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 8:34 am

I asked this question yesterday...

What are you NOT seeing that would NOT make her go WNW?

NOtice this line from the NHC: NOTE: THERE ARE NO DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGESTING THAT ISABEL MIGHT
EVER REACH FLORIDA.

THis is very significant. These models are not just some models that spit out coordinates. They put out patterns. All of them see the trough...the same one you don't see pulling it WNW then NW. She's just past 60W...and you're worried about her needing to turn WNW very soon? I'm sorry but that's letting fear rule over your reasoning.

Please...please ...I have a request. Do not say "I don't see anything that would make it go WNW.. " again without looking at the NHC discusions...the discusions from the mets that are on this board or the models data that is available on the net. If you need links to the model data...I can provide that to you. To be very honest...if you do NOT see anything that would turn this storm...you have a big blindfold on. If the model data is wrong...that is on thing...however...every shread of data available (and the data Avila is speaking of is about 20 models) shows a turn. Sir...you are not looking. If you need help seeing it...ask. Those local mets you keep talking about? They are also data that you are chosing to throw out and say you are seeing anything that says it will turn. The data is there...you just are not chosing to see it.

Josephine96 · #7 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 8:42 am

MAYBE IT WOULD OCCUR TO YOU THAT I DON'T SEE IT.. BECAUSE I DON'T THINK IT'S GONNA HAPPEN..

JUST BECAUSE YOU HAVE PROFESSIONAL MET ON YOUR AVATAR DOESN'T GIVE YOU THE RIGHT TO BASH ME BECAUSE I HAVE A LACK OF FAITH IN A NORTHWARD TURN!

SUE ME ALL RIGHT.. JUST DON'T CRITICIZE AN OPINION I HAVE....

I WILL NOT FOLLOW YOUR ADVICE.. RESPECT MY OPINION and TAKE IT or leave it.

Dmetal81 · #8 Postby **Dmetal81** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 8:50 am

Its real easy to say that you see that 100% northward turn from Houston, TX... but I'd like to see your opinion if you live 2 miles from the atlantic in florida... maybe you wouldn't be so sure then..... I agree, the data is all there suggesting a turn, but the models have been wrong, and been known to rapidly shift. I think its wrong to say anyone is clear until it MAKES a turn

Josephine96 · #9 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 8:53 am

Thank you D Metal and sorry you had to see my outburst.. I'm just getting so po'd with people who just want me to change my position and automatically believe it will turn away

#10 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 8:53 am

Sorry...in the world of meteorology...we make forecasts by data. When all the data suggest an event is not going to happen...then chances are it isn't going to happen. Not all opinions are valid or to be respected when they are made on faulty data or lack or respect for the available data. You have a lack of faith in a northward turn. You have yet to give any meteorologocial evidence as to why.

Sorry...opinions based in conflict with all avialbale data are not valid and are formed in ignorance and cannot be respected. I started off trying to help you yesterday. You said you didn't see anything that would turn it...I showed you a trough sitting right over you on every dynamic model in 120 hours. You did not tell me how that trough was not going to be there in 120 hours and how every model was going to be wrong. You just said it wasn't going to happen. Well...the atmosphere doesn't work that way.

Unfortunately in my job...I can't just say "won't happen" and then be wrong and say...oooops....laugh it off....and cruise on down the road. For pro mets...this is not a game. So forgive me for trying to help you out a little.

#11 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 8:56 am

Dmetle81 - I'd be saying the SAME thing there. Why? Because I forecast from the data. When you know how I forecast...then you will know what I would forecast. When not one model worth a darn brings this storm near me...I would not worry.

Josephine96 · #12 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 8:56 am

Well I am sure here on the East Coast of Florida there are a lot of nervous people here...

Dmetal81 · #13 Postby **Dmetal81** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 8:57 am

I agree, that would be the same as turning you'r back to an onrushing attacker, just because the guy standing next to you looks like the target. You just want to watch and observe and make sure. Models and and computer numbers and such are all great data, but they are data and theoretical, Im looking at the now... and the now doesnt say north, it says west... if its turned by sunday, good for us, ill breathe easy then!

Chase224 · #14 Postby **Chase224** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 8:58 am

I see how everyone is reacting but think about it we had the same situation about 11 years ago that the storm was going to go north and ended up going west and causing 30 billion dollars in damage so If you noticed some South Floridians on pins and needles is because we have been through this before

Josephine96 · #15 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:01 am

Chase- It's ok.. We're allowed to be on pins and needles.. even to those who just automatically think because a computer modle says it will go north.. it will go north... and then they want us to forget about it

chris_fit · #16 Postby **chris_fit** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:02 am

Air Force Met wrote:Sorry...in the world of meteorology...we make forecasts by data. When all the data suggest an event is not going to happen...then chances are it isn't going to happen. Not all opinions are valid or to be respected when they are made on faulty data or lack or respect for the available data. You have a lack of faith in a northward turn. You have yet to give any meteorologocial evidence as to why.

Sorry...opinions based in conflict with all avialbale data are not valid and are formed in ignorance and cannot be respected. I started off trying to help you yesterday. You said you didn't see anything that would turn it...I showed you a trough sitting right over you on every dynamic model in 120 hours. You did not tell me how that trough was not going to be there in 120 hours and how every model was going to be wrong. You just said it wasn't going to happen. Well...the atmosphere doesn't work that way.

Unfortunately in my job...I can't just say "won't happen" and then be wrong and say...oooops....laugh it off....and cruise on down the road. For pro mets...this is not a game. So forgive me for trying to help you out a little.

I agree with you 110% on the data game thing.... However, your data sources take this thing literally from Columbia to Canada....

On the "won't happen" quote, that's what your practically saying about FL. Never say never :wink:

But I do see your points! Keep up the good work, i hope to be in your position some day (im majoring in met @ Florida Tech) ....

Cheers!
~Chris

ColinD · #17 Postby **ColinD** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:02 am

Ahhh, you're both right. "Air Force Met" is correct in that there are very good reasons to think there is very little chance of a threat to Florida. there is no good reason to predict a threat to Florida.

"Josephine96" is correct in that there is a non-zero chance of a threat to Florida but non-zero, no matter how small, for a powerful hurricane can seem threatening.

Everyone just wants to feel respected ;-)

Josephine96 · #18 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:06 am

LOL Colin..

#19 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:36 am

Colin...one thing about the models you mention (like taking it to Columbia). You have to be discerning. On a Cat 4/5 hurricane...you would only use the BAMD in that list of 4 from the trpoical model suite that comes out. The rest are worthless. The BAMS is shallow steering...won't be steered shallow. The BAMM is mid-level flow....won't be steered mid-levels. So...you have to know what to throw out because of the strength of the storm.

IS there a non-zero chance for FL? No...never said that. I posted yesterday on another thread that I put it at about 5%. The best chances in my opinion are NC northward. I see a scrape from NC northward to Long Island or a close fish. The 1938 Long Island Storm a little more west maybe

For the recond...I think you will start to see the WNW bumps today....

#20 Postby **seaswing** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:42 am

Good morning...I think what is happening here is a "clash" between theory and reality. Forecasting is a great tool for us all. It helps us plan our days and nights and gives is some knowledge on the future. BUT, I know that I do not put complete stock in forecasting because here in Florida in the summertime when the mets. say a 20% chance of rain, that REALLY means, there will probably be rain somewhere in your area but you may not be the one that gets wet. Then I have been under a tremendous storm that blows a tree down and the mets. never even mention it. Make sense? I have seen too many storms be forecasted to "make landfall" at a certain area only to wobble and jog or even change directions at the last minute. I dont have much faith in long range forecasting. That is why I check here several times a day! (also look at NHC). I believe that the westward movement is still happening with some jogs either way but consistently moving west. I will feel MUCH better about the whole thing when it is a fish. The one model I have been paying attention to is the UKMET. Seems to have greater consistency in looking further ahead and so far has been a pretty good tool. BUT, that is not all I look at. I look at the model forecasts and they all go in different directions.....very baffling! but when/if it is sitting off the coast of Fla. and it is wobbling around or stalls, I get nervous, everyone should..... and as I have been posting very little here because I am not an expert, I still do believe "Never Say Never" and I don't base my opinions on the forecasts, I tend to go with the here and now...and I don't see a significant turn. (yet)

More concern for Florida again...?

More concern for Florida again...?

Florida

Who is online