Isabel reorganizing this morning?

[Dmetal81]

Izzy appears to be undergoing the back end of an eyewall replacement this morning. I would have to say that the eye will be tightening back up into its more perfect circle by this afternoon... most baffling of all is that when a hurricane is going to turn, usually you start to see cirrus clouds shooting off in the direction of the steering current. This morning, there is absolutely NO shear, tugging, or pull over isabel. She seems to be holding her own and building up the high. I have alot of faith in the NHC... usually when they say its going to turn, it turns... but the only evidence to me that seems to point to a turn is the models... no satellite data points to one ocurring anytime shortly... and it seems only a fool would stake everything on the models... just my 2 cents

[mf_dolphin]

I like the term guidance LOL I prefer the term reality myself. I would like nothing better than for Isabel to turn harmlessly out of the way but until I see some real evidence of it happening I'm not holding my breath!

[Josephine96]

I myself am an NHC basher lol.. I don't trust them very much lol

[AussieMark]

Josephine96 - Do think that the sharp to the Northwest during days 3-5 in unrealiestic as it hasn't even got any northward motion which was forcast about 24 hours ago now.

[ColinD]

Surrounding cloudtops are cooler this morning but so is the temp in the eye itself.

[Dmetal81]

Dont bash the NHC, can you imagine how hard there job must be (well, from Jun-Nov anyways).... I mean, one bad call and people could die, or be stuck in a hurricane in a car, or mobile home... or almost as bad, one bad call and 2 million people could have to evacuate for no reason, or may end up evacuating into the path of the storm! Its not an easy job im sure. Seriously, the NHC does a good job IMO... I think they are just going to far this year with this 5 day model, i dont think the models are ready to be doing 5 day forecasts yet.

As for Isabel, until the extrapolated movement moves north of my area (thats the black line on this page http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_13.gif )
Im still holding my breath

[vbhoutex]

Izzy appears to be undergoing the back end of an eyewall replacement this morning. I would have to say that the eye will be tightening back up into its more perfect circle by this afternoon... most baffling of all is that when a hurricane is going to turn, usually you start to see cirrus clouds shooting off in the direction of the steering current. This morning, there is absolutely NO shear, tugging, or pull over isabel. She seems to be holding her own and building up the high. I have alot of faith in the NHC... usually when they say its going to turn, it turns... but the only evidence to me that seems to point to a turn is the models... no satellite data points to one ocurring anytime shortly... and it seems only a fool would stake everything on the models... just my 2 cents

You are absolutely correct on the staking everything on the models. You make a very good point here. We all have to learn to use the models as guidance and not as the absolute. They are invaluable as a tool in forecasting, however if one does not use the other available tools-satellite loops, clamatology, etc., then the "whole picture" may not emerge and the results could be misleading.

This being said, look west of Isabel and you will start to see why the models are predicting the turn. Incominig trough still exiting the central plains and some Swerly shear just off the SE coast. This is truly where timing in everything as to the future track of Hurricane Isabel, IMO. The trough is the biggest factor. If the trough stays as strong as predicted and does not lift NE quickly then the turn will start to happen, if not, all bets are off!!

[Dmetal81]

Surrounding cloud tops are cool, but the eye is still ragged... what I dont understand is the sudden perfect symmetry in her... barring interference from upwelling, I'd say shes on her way back to a 5

[Dmetal81]

I saw that good sized Low building east of texas... that wasnt there yesterday, we shall see, we shall see

[Josephine96]

Yes I think the sharp turn is not realistic.. Even though she keeps inching like .2 north... she seems to go like .5-.7 west everytime she goes .2 north so her motion is still west..

The turn to the WNW is supposed to have already started and it hasn't.. Florida is still in her bulls eye.. till she moves north of Jacksonville or into the Gulf and towards the Gulf coast... {which will never happen prob.}

if I lived in Central or South Florida.. I'd be a little concerned about the still west movement.. cause with the High.. she looks like she won't be changing directions anytime soon... and remember.. even if she moves WNW she's still coming towards Florida.. She needs to move NW or N or even East or South to declare the Florida threat gone..

[janswizard]

John, I think you need to take a chill pill. You're going to give yourself a heart attack. Why don't you wait until late tomorrow night or early Monday before you start to panic - there will still be plenty of time to evacuate if we find that we need to.

[Dmetal81]

another 8 hours and she will be south of Floyds '99 path... doesnt mean anything, except that floyd passed 90 miles of east of florida (and brought hurricane force winds) and that was a relatively sharp turn too. The difference in that situation is the models didnt predict a turn at first, they originally took it into central/so FL and changed their story as it got closer to the coast... this could be an opposite situation. you just never know

[Thunder44]

I think I as long as the storm continues moving towards your direction, still watch it. However, it is indeed, if you factor in the models today, that it's less likely to make landfall there. Just trying to point out you shouldn't turn your back on any storm, just cuz models say it won't come. The models have been wrong before, even when they all agree.