should we be worried?

jewli · #1 Postby **jewli** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:26 am

I missed the forcast this morning . I know this storm is predicted to turn north and spare south fl when is this supposed to take place and if it doesnt should we be worried?????

#2 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:34 am

Not worried, just keep watching. You're almost certainly out of the woods now.

Guest · #3 Postby **Guest** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:36 am

as of saturday morning the hurricane is suppose to hit N/C according to what steve lyons said this morning. If your in florida I really wouldn't scratch this hurricane off your list until it passes by but in any case make sure your prepared for it just in case. With hurricanes packing some high winds like Isabel means it needs to be monitored. Just because its predicted to hit north carolina doesn't mean everyone else should breathe a sigh of relief until then. My dad was telling me of a tropical storm that headed out to sea the forecasters were saying it was long gone weakened the whole nine yards a few days later the tropical storm headed right back to the eastcoast causing destrution in its wake. But getting back to Isabel their saying wed or thurs of next week. Don't let your guard down for a second. :roll:

zoeyann · #4 Postby **zoeyann** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:36 am

WXman57 you usually seem pretty sure and you are almost always correct. If you seem unsure I don't have a clue

Josephine96 · #5 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:40 am

Here we go with the "out of the woods" talk again.. There is an unwritten rule.. never say "out of the woods" until the storm is dead. South Florida is not out of the woods.. The state of Florida is not out of the woods..

It is very unprofessional to say someone is out of the woods at this point

zoeyann · #6 Postby **zoeyann** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:43 am

Sorry Josephine I just meant that when someone whose opinion I trust implies anything is possible that I have no chance at figuring out this storm

Josephine96 · #7 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:47 am

Zoey Ann- It's ok.. I wasn't referring to you lol..

zoeyann · #8 Postby **zoeyann** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:50 am

Yeah but after I posted I saw another post by WXman and realized that he was being responsible by adding the "keep watching" and it was not meant as uncertainty *not quite awake yet*

JetMaxx · #9 Postby **JetMaxx** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:51 am

Well, lets just say the odds of a direct hit on South Florida have went waaaay down....IMHO less than 10%....

Should Floridians keep an eye on Isabel?
SURE....hurricanes are large and sometimes do strange things....but to be worried at this juncture? NO...because this hurricane is at least 1200 miles from any point of Florida, and is moving slowly (<10 mph)-- IF there is a change in model guidance showing an increased threat to SoFla...everyone will have plenty of time to get prepared.

Hurricanes can do some strange things...but it appears to me the models have a pretty good handle on Isabel. My forecast of landfall between NE Florida and the SC/NC border is likely too far to the left (based on all model data), but I've decided to be prudent and await the model runs this evening utilizing the Gulfstream jet upper air data to confirm this before shifting my forecast to the right.

Lindaloo · #10 Postby **Lindaloo** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 10:12 am

Josephine96 wrote:Here we go with the "out of the woods" talk again.. There is an unwritten rule.. never say "out of the woods" until the storm is dead. South Florida is not out of the woods.. The state of Florida is not out of the woods..

It is very unprofessional to say someone is out of the woods at this point

Well, wxman57 is a professional. And I am sure that by the data he has access to everyday, he sees something that we do not.

should we be worried?

should we be worried?

Nope

Steve lyons said a N/C hit

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