Florida is not safe. Keep a close eye on this storm !

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wrkh99

Florida is not safe. Keep a close eye on this storm !

#1 Postby wrkh99 » Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:59 am

Just read the last NHC discussion


and each model run has been a little farther
west and slower. The exception is the 06z GFDL run which made a
major shift westward by more 200 nmi in the later forecast periods
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Josephine96

#2 Postby Josephine96 » Sat Sep 13, 2003 10:02 am

Yet everytime I am stating how worried I still am about Florida.. I keep getting told.. "Look at the data" or... "you're a wishcaster"
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Re: Florida is not safe. Keep a close eye on this storm !

#3 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 13, 2003 10:08 am

wrkh99 wrote:Just read the last NHC discussion


and each model run has been a little farther
west and slower. The exception is the 06z GFDL run which made a
major shift westward by more 200 nmi in the later forecast periods


I believe that quote is being misinterpreted. Earlier the GFDL had Isabel heading north and out to sea - well off the east U.S. coast. The new run is now in agreement with every other model, taking Isabel inland into the NC to Long Island area - NOT Florida.
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Simple fact is

#4 Postby Downdraft » Sat Sep 13, 2003 10:35 am

Models are models. Two more days of accurate data from the jet or hurricane hunters sampling the synoptic environment around the system will give us a much better picture. Personally, I hope it doesn't come to Florida but I wouldn't wish this storm on my worst enemy (aka "the great one). The size, power and speed of this hurricane means some people somewhere are going to have their lives changed forever. Now it's time to hope for a miracle and hope it goes out to sea although I don't see that happening now. :cry:
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#5 Postby Air Force Met » Sat Sep 13, 2003 10:35 am

Yes....the quote is being misinterpreted. People think it means that the models now think it is coming to FLorida. THe models that are shifting westward were the ones that had the storm going out to sea towards Bermuda. NOw they are falling in line towards the Mid EC. THe Major shift westard means that instead of it hitting Bermuda it heads towards the EC.

And Yes John...if you look at the data...you would see that this NEW data...the ones that have shifted westward...they are now in agreement with the older data that had the storm moving towards the mid atlantic states. The data does not take it towards FL and nothing in the NHC comments this morning offer any data that give any substance to your arguement. Before you take snippets of statements from the people you don't repsect and try to use it...make sure you know what you know they are saying. Why? Because you have just used their statement to justify what you think....but the actual data they were speaking of shows an EC hit ;)

Kinda funny how that worked out huh? :)
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#6 Postby ameriwx2003 » Sat Sep 13, 2003 10:38 am

Yep here is the 06Z GFDL model run. Its shifted Westward but like Air Force Met pointed out its shifted more in line with a Mid Ec hit

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfdltc2.cgi ... =Animation
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#7 Postby MWatkins » Sat Sep 13, 2003 10:42 am

If it's slower in the forward motion this completely lessens the what little of a threat remains for Florida...

If it is as slow as the 0z gfs run...which was a hilarious joke...then Izzy goes out to sea.

All signs still point to north of the SC/GA border as the left most extreeme and I'm probably going to be wrong on yesterday's call of a SC landfall.

But with as many factors involved in the ultimate outcome of the system (look at any extended WV loop to see them all) subtle changes with any of these features will impact the movement.

So just watch...and be glad you're in Florida and not NC.

MW
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#8 Postby Aquawind » Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:17 am

MWatkins wrote:So just watch...and be glad you're in Florida and not NC.

MW



I agree entirely. Fact is NHC has been doing a great job forecasting and interpreting the model confusion. When Mr. Avila sticks his neck out to even mention that Florida is not a target according to the models..combined with the other factors and the NHC forecast..I feel confident with the current forecast..Just hoping a turn actually keeps Isabel out to sea.
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#9 Postby paradoxsixnine » Sat Sep 13, 2003 12:16 pm

So just watch...and be glad you're in Florida and not NC.



YEAH YEAH YEAH...**sigh**
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#10 Postby Agua » Sat Sep 13, 2003 12:20 pm

[quote="AquawindWhen Mr. Avila sticks his neck out to even mention that Florida is not a target according to the models..combined with the other factors and the NHC forecast..I feel confident with the current forecast..[/quote]

Wow. Damned excellent point. Mr. circumspect put his neck out there. That really ought to comfort a lot of folks if they'll sit and think about it a minute.
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