Florida is safe...OK---now to the next state.

[ncweatherwizard]

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweather/isabel.html

If not, then Isabel has its own brain.

[Josephine96]

Isabel does have her own brain. She will only go where she wants to go.. Florida is NOT safe.. Making a statement like that this early is irresponsible..

Florida is only safe if she turns NW or N..

[cindyfl]

Are You absolutely positively sure because if you are then no worries here. But if for some reason she just by some slim chance comes to Florida then when my house is trashed can I come live you?

[ncweatherwizard]

One more thing I want to add before I go to the audio. I've seen several posts over several days about Isabel turning like a big ship. This is correct and very logical reasoning. The forecast includes a slow and steady turn; if I start the turn at 36 hours, I don't finish the turn until 136 hours or so, which is a little over four days.

As for Florida, it would take a complete fall out of the ULL and trough in the southern plains, so that there is no northward steering at 48 hours and beyond. This ULL appears to be trying to intensify, and that pattern will likely continue over the next couple of days. Although, it does not have to be very strong to erode the western part of the ridge. I think that every now and then, people get the impression that this ridge is going to barrel through everything in front of it...that's just not going to happen. Low pressure and troughs will keep ridges in check. I would say that the chance for a Florida strike is less than 10% off my head, and I wouldn't lose any sleep over it. If you haven't taken a look at my forecasts, take a quick peek to see my reasoning---it's remained the same for several days now.

I don't want to make anyone if FL mad by signaling "all clear" but it's time to get off the fence.