Models pointing toward FL...

[ericinmia]

It is interesting that while the global models are pointing toward the ne coast, the tropical, regional, and ensemble models are pointing more toward south fla.

Tropical:
http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/13LTRP.html

Regional:
http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/13LREG.html

Ensemble:
http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/13LENS.html

It is interesting to see how the differen't mathmatical models come out so differently!

-eric

[ColinD]

Hi Eric,

I don't really see that any of those are pointed toward FL. Of the tropical ones, A98E heads to Puerto rico (!), The BAM's head west for a few days and then turn North, GFDL starts wnw and NW very soon, LBAR gets close to the Bahamas but still turns east of there.

[Josephine96]

It also just proves that there actually ARE still models pointing at a Florida strike and all this halibash about "it's not coming here.." needs to stop..

If those models are recent, which I assume they are.. it means that the threat to Florida is still HIGH...

Everybody needs to quit bashing me or other people that think this is still coming to Florida cause the bottom line is.. Until it moves NW or N.. it is headed straight for us...

[Scott_inVA]

It is interesting that while the global models are pointing toward the ne coast, the tropical, regional, and ensemble models are pointing more toward south fla.

Tropical:
http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/13LTRP.html

Regional:
http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/13LREG.html

Ensemble:
http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/13LENS.html

It is interesting to see how the different mathmatical models come out so differently!



-eric

That's b/c the tropicals are mostly worthless, the Eta is terrible with off shore TCs and other secondary models are untrustworthy with TCs.

I can't come up with a sensible synoptic set up that gets this storm into Florida or Georgia.

Scott

[AussieMark]

What is the reason for the difficuty with Isabel considering that they were spot-on for Fabian during his entire life cycle?

[ameriwx2003]

Here is the latest Tropical Models at 12z and none point to a Florida Landfall:):)

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03091312

[ericinmia]

Alright to put is simply it is HEADING toward FL for a LOT longer than originally predicted.

Reports keep claiming the northward turn would at least start by certain times, yet the storm has remained on a direct West (+ hair north) course.

The NHC this morning even expresed doubt about their ability to predict the ULL and High's and how they are to interact together; However they did foreshadow with the coments about Izzy building up the high above her as she barrels west at around 9-10mph.

NO ONE knows where she is going to go with ANY level of certainty, except that she most likely will strike the East Coast somewhere. The more data one observes, from differen't sources that aren't all based upon similar mathmatical calculations, gives more of a general and accurate idea of what is possible. (Not what will occur, but what is possible)

It is better to be open and prepared than surprised!

Look at these tracks... ANYTHING is possible
http://www.197358246.com/storm_tracks.jpg

[Air Force Met]

No JOHN...there are NOT models that are still pointing to south Florida. You've got the ETA....maybe...which is horrible on any tropical system much less strong hurricanes. If you want to hang on to that...go for it. The others ones curve it off but can't be used for Cat 4's. You've got to know what models to throw out. You can't use the BAMS to steer a CAT 4 hurricane. If you do...you show you don't know what you are talking about. THe A98 can also be thrown out...something like that is ridiculous. Look at the dynamics.

Time will tell...won't it.

[Josephine96]

Listen up OK.. They do on that chart show that they are coming towards Florida but are SCHEDULED TO TURN... Do me a favor.. GET OFF MY BACK! I'M ALLOWED TO HAVE MY OWN OPINIONS and YOU ARE THE ONLY 1 ON THIS BOARD WHO'S BEEN BASHING ME FOR MY OPINIONS.. DATA OR NO DATA... IF THAT'S THE WAY YOU'RE GONNA GET YOUR OPINIONS ACROSS IS BY BASHING PEOPLE.. THEN YOU NEED TO APOLOGIZE TO EVERYONE.. BECAUSE EVEN IF YOU HAVEN'T BASHED.. YOU'VE CONTRADICTED... PEOPLE ARE ALLOWED TO HAVE THERE OWN OPINIONS CAUSE THIS IS A MESSAGE BOARD USED BY A LOT OF NOVICES and OTHER WEATHER ENTHUSIASTS.. NOT CHIEF METS.. STOP BASHING OR CONTRADICTING MY OPINION OR SOMEONE ELSES' CAUSE I NOTICE YOU KEEP DOING THAT... DO ME A FAVOR TOO.. DON'T RESPOND TO ANY OF MY POSTS PLEASE.. AT LEAST THE PEOPLE THAT DO RESPOND TO MY POSTS.. RESPECTFULLY DISAGREE IF THEY DO..

STOP BASHING and CONTRADICTING...

[Josephine96]

ALSO REMEMBER.. WE HERE IN FLORIDA ARE NOT SAFE TILL THE STORM GETS NORTH OF 30.. THEN YOU CAN START WAVING THE "FLORIDA IS SAFE" WHITE FLAG

[janswizard]

This is starting to sound an awful lot like the gopbi board. Sheesh!

[Floridacane]

John, I totally agree with you. A lady interviewed in our paper this morning (Florida Today) stated, "They told us to leave for one and nothing happened. So I am gonna sit back, relax and ride it out."
I really hope she pays attention, because it could cause catastrophe. She probably isn't the only one thinking like that right now.
Central Florida hasn't been hit by a big one in a long time. I would hate for people who live in Cen. FL get killed or injured due to the "crying wolf" syndrome.
When it gets past 30N, I'll throw a party and start praying for everyone north of that. But until then, we are still a threat.

Everyone needs to understand, this is a message board. We all have our opinions and are allowed to post them accordingly. If you want to come on here and disagree is one thing, but to 'bash" someone for they think is wrong. We are all here for one reason, to cast our predictions, whether they pan out or not. So let's get along, and continue to do what we all love to do.

Sorry so long, just need to get that out.
Lori

[Deenac813]

ALSO REMEMBER.. WE HERE IN FLORIDA ARE NOT SAFE TILL THE STORM GETS NORTH OF 30.. THEN YOU CAN START WAVING THE "FLORIDA IS SAFE" WHITE FLAG

I agree.. even though I do not think that Isabel is going to hit anywhere in Florida..

Deena

[Air Force Met]

I'm not bashing you...you are running around like chicken little. And..as you've pointed out...this is a board...and I'm entitled to MY opinions. And in my opinion...you need to try to learn something. If you don't want to...then fine.
I don't understand the contradiction part...can you explain? I'm trying to help you.

You talk about bashing? I have not bashed you personnally...only your methods...which is fair game...I don't have your luxury of getting to be wrong. You called Steve Lyons a parrot. I know Steve Lyons personally. HE runs circles around you. He left the NHC because he cannot handle the politics. The only reason he does what he does at TWC is liabilities and leagalities. Ask other PRO-METS here and they will tell you the same. HOwever...Steve Lyons was a PRof at A&M when I was there and he is one of the best...so when you call him a parrot...you better remember that he is better that you or I will ever be and we (plural) will never be a better forecaster than him. John Hope was better...and I miss him too. What made him different was he was old enough and had enough $ to not care about it. HE said what he though and told the lawyers to eat his shorts.

I did not start off bashing you...I tried to point some things out to you....you have blinders on and did not want to discuss it. You want to ignore it and call it you opinion. OK. That's fine. I guess then we will see what triumphs...gut instinct or science?

I did not mean to offend you. I have been here for time (mostly in the chat room) and try to help people understand the dynamics of weather. I get a little frustrated when people want to throw off science and data to go their own way. Forgive me.

[Stormcenter]

There are simply just way too many "know it alls" on this board. If you make an observation they don't agree with well then it's the old "you don't know what you talking thing". Come on let's face the facts here. Yeah sure some you may know a little more about weather than others. But if you were really that good you be getting paid big bucks for your talent but your NOT. Let people speak their opinions and quit knocking them. There is nothing wrong with disagreeing, it's when you guys make it personal that's not right.

[Floridacane]

This was taken from the Hazardous Weather outlook for Melbourne Florida, Southern Brevard County this am on the NOAA website. I am not saying run for the hills, just to keep watch. Isabel is a very large storm, and any fluctuations in her current path could bring her close OR far to our coast.
HoustonMet, to clarify for John, him and I both live on the East coast of Florida. You live in Texas. If this storm was in the GOM, you would probably be biting your nails also, whether or not what the models say. It's scary looking down the barrel of a storm, models or not. There are some storms that didn't go with the models. So if we want to stress ourselves out, please let us. I didn't copy all of the outlook, just the part about Isabel....

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1122 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2003


HURRICANE ISABEL IS FORECAST TO BE ROUGHLY 740 MILES EAST OF THE
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. IT MUST BE REMEMBERED THAT
THIS IS AN OUTLOOK AND ERRORS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD CAN
BE AS MUCH AS 400 NAUTICAL MILES.

WHILE IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL ULTIMATELY
POSE A THREAT TO THE REGION...AT THIS TIME...IT WOULD BE PRUDENT FOR
LOCAL INTERESTS TO TAKE REASONABLE PRECAUTIONS SHOULD THE THREAT
MATERIALIZE.

SOME SUGGESTED ACTIONS...
REVIEW YOUR FAMILY'S HURRICANE PLAN.
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR HURRICANE PLANS.

[Orlando_wx]

you are right this is begining to look like the gopbi board as more people shift from one board to the next that's what happens.
John

[Air Force Met]

FloridaCane...Lili was a 4 last year...just last year...I went through the same thing you are going through now. It was a little different because I didn't have days and days because of steering flow and all. However...once all the models came into agreement...I did not sit around and bite my nails even though the extrap motion (draw a straight line of current motion) of the storm had it coming inland 30 miles south of me at the time. So...I was there last year with a Category 4 storm of my own which was facing uncertain steering currents. I know how I would react because I know how I DID react. Lili was moving right at us and we did not know if she would turn. THe models were spread. They came together. We relaxed even though the turn was 18-24 hours away. Here...the turn is still 48-72 hours away but it is coming.

[mf_dolphin]

Eeryone needs to take a Chill Pill here. This is not GoPBI and We won't let it degrade into it.

Let's discuss things but respect each other.

IMO, the Florida people have a right to be concerned about Isabel. Until it turns they have that right! To the mets, both professional and amateur, please continue to provide your opinions but keep in mind that just because the models or patterns are pointing one way does not mean it will happen. The NHC in the 11AM discussion said that the models have ot had a good handle on the ridge so far. How that statement gets interrupted is up for discussion but it seems to me that the turn point appears to be shifting west.

Bottom line is, we're all here to watch and learn. It's hard to learn when we're yelling at each other.

[Agua]

Yeah, what's going on here is we've got a professional who, by training and experience, sees the weather as a very largely understandable and rational field of study. You've got to look at it from his point too; he sees John expressing fear which, in the professional's mind is unjustified, based upon his highly informed analysis. Then when he tries to explain why that fear is unfounded, in another thread, the fearful person acts, well, fearfully and explains that no amount of logic in the world is going to ally those fears.

Now, on the other side, John's side, you've got a weather enthusiast who, like all of us, looks back on his experience and knows that tropical forecasting, dealing with such a fluid subject matter, is far from being perfectly accurate. John can draw on past experiences and recall storms that were forecast to make landfall at "X", then ends up hundreds of miles away at "Y". So given the uncertainty in John's mind, he feels justified in being doubtful until the storm is past him - no amount of meteorlogical analysis is going to calm him as long as there's a dangerous, big storm heading in his direction.

So essentially, the disagreement here is one based upon the gap of faith between AFMet and John with regard to the reliability of tropical forecasting. As an attorney, I can understand how it would be frustrating to try and explain how something works to a client, and they just won't accept it, regardless of how many times you show it to them in black and white. As a person with a big, bad storm sitting out there coming towards you, I think we can all understand how scary that can be and sometimes, well, fear trumps rationality.

I don't know if that helped to clarify anything but I guess what I'm getting at is both guys' responses are sort of understandable if you look at it from their respective viewpoints.