Andrew and the NHC - for the record

[cvalkan4]

I keep seeing references to Andrew, and how "everyone kept saying Andrew would turn north, but it didn't, and it hit Florida."

Please go back and look at the discussions issued by NHC at that time. Even five days before landfall, while Andrew was headed NW to NNW as a weakening 45 mph tropical storm, the NHC was talking about models showing a building ridge to the north, which could cause Andrew to strengthen and head west. That's exactly what happened, and once it started the westward move a couple of days later, neither NHC or TWC said they thought it would turn north a significant amount.

I was impressed at the time (and still am) how accurately Andrew's track was predicted, even with 1992 models. NHC deserves a lot of credit IMO.

Rant over. Thanks for listening.

[Deenac813]

I keep seeing references to Andrew, and how "everyone kept saying Andrew would turn north, but it didn't, and it hit Florida."
I was impressed at the time (and still am) how accurately Andrew's track was predicted, even with 1992 models. NHC deserves a lot of credit IMO.

Rant over. Thanks for listening.

I have referenced Andew today but I was asking a question about the differences between the 2 storms.. I was in no way implying they are on the same track or the same.. I just think any storm that is where Isabel is deserves being watched.

Deena

[Air Force Met]

Yeah...I read people saying that and was not sure why. Talk about your revisionist history. People remember what they want to. That turn to the west was well forecast...as I said on the other thread...we saw it at Ft Hood on the models and forecasted it...the NHC talked about it...it was no surprise at all. I think people who say it was are trying to justify some surpise now.

[Air Force Met]

Not you Denac...but others have emplied some surpise turn of Andrew to the west when it was supposed to go out so sea. There was no surprise with the west turn of Andrew.

[Chase224]

Well the thing is that all the Mets in 1992 was talking about a north turn it took like until the 20th for the mets to say we might be getting a hurricane

[JetMaxx]

Exactly right....I knew Andrew was turning west on the 20th, and also he was likely to deepen explosively. I remember telling my dad not to be surprised if Andrew reached cat-5 status before landfall. It took ten long years, but last year I was finally proven right.

[cvalkan4]

Chase224 -- Please look back at the track and the NHC discussions. Andrew was weak and had already turned north on the 19-20th, but in spite of that NHC was already calling for a turn to the west and intensification. There may have been some local mets that were saying otherwise, but not the NHC.

[Chase224]

I was talking about the local Mets not the NHC

[Derecho]

Yeah...I read people saying that and was not sure why. Talk about your revisionist history. People remember what they want to. That turn to the west was well forecast...as I said on the other thread...we saw it at Ft Hood on the models and forecasted it...the NHC talked about it...it was no surprise at all. I think people who say it was are trying to justify some surpise now.

I've emphasized this point numerous times; NHC NEVER had a forecast track for Andrew that did NOT point at the US generally, and NHC NEVER forecast Andrew to disappate; actually, I believe every single Andrew advisory had the 72 hour intensity higher than the initial intensity.

It was, of course, a few local TV mets who proclaimed Andrew to be going out to sea, as best I can tell.

The other thing about Andrew is that the modern dynamic models CAPTURED THE WEST TURN PERFECTLY, including the AVN, progenitor of today's GFS. (I've seen all of the Andrew model runs.)

These are the same models mocked furiously by the Florida Wishcast brigade.

[KeyLargoDave]

I have absolute respect and appreciation for the NHC, and absolutely no criticism of what the agency did before Andrew. But lots of South Floridians were suprised on Sunday Aug. 23 -- those who didn't have access to models and satellite loops, meaning nearly everyone then.

After Andrew and the rapid intensification of the panhandle storm a few years after that, the NHC and hurricane research center made improving intensity forecasts a priority, and they freely admit that there is less skill in intensity forecasting than in track forecasting.

The discussion I hope is useful for people (non-met pros), who are thinking about possible storm scenarios, to be aware that a storm like Andrew could have become (what seemed like) suddenly more threatening.

All the discussion is a great help I think to everyone who's looking for as much information as possible.

[Air Force Met]

"These are the same models mocked furiously by the Florida Wishcast brigade."

Nice Term Der...