Hurricane Isabel Forecast: 5 p.m. EST SEP 13

[JetMaxx]

It's becoming crystal clear this afternoon that maxi-hurricane Isabel is going to indeed turn northwest and north and slam into the Atlantic seaboard in 5-6 days...somewhere between eastern North Carolina and Cape Cod...likely as a major hurricane.

My forecast is a little faster than the model guidance...but in all honesty, I'm being conservative...once Isabel is north of 34N....she could well accelerate and move 30 mph or more....

As for intensity, I expect Isabel to continue an extremely intense and dangerous hurricane....but to weaken some before landfall....cat-3.

If Isabel moves west of my forecast track and strikes the Outer Banks....it will IMO likely be as a record breaking cat-4 hurricane. I'm forecasting landfall farther north, and therefore expect some weakening before impact; although still as a major hurricane (which would be the first since before 1850 for Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey).

Current:

SAT SEP 13
5 PM EST...22.6N - 62.6W...140 KTS


Forecast:
SUN SEP 14
5 AM EST...23.3N - 64.7W...135 KTS
5 PM EST...24.2N - 66.9W...135 KTS

MON SEP 15
5 AM EST...25.0N - 68.8W...140 KTS
5 PM EST...26.0N - 70.5W...140 KTS

TUE SEP 16
5 AM EST...27.0N - 72.0W...135KTS
5 PM EST...28.4N - 73.0W...135 KTS

WED SEP 17
5 AM EST...30.1N - 73.8W...130 KTS
5 PM EST...32.0N - 74.1W...125 KTS

THU SEP 18
5 AM EST...35.0N - 74.2W...120 KTS (75 ESE Cape Hatteras, NC)
5 PM EST...39.0N - 75.0W...105 KTS (Over Delaware Bay/ Cape May, NJ)



Extended Forecast:
FRI SEP 19
5 AM EST...43.0N - 78.0W...Inland/ 55 KTS (Over western NY state near Buffalo)
5 PM EST...48.0N - 81.0W...Inland/ 40 KTS (Extratropical over eastern Ontario, Canada north of Sudbury)

[Aquawind]

Nasty..I know you hope your wrong this time..as we all do.