How Far Inland Do You Go?

[Steve Cosby]

Given the consensus of Cat 3 or more for Isabel, how far inland would you evacuate?

I guess the companion question would be "Would you stay at a Holiday Inn Express?"

[opera ghost]

I voted strictly on what I would advise friends and family to do in the event of a Houston/Galveston hurricane. I'm about 60 miles up from the coast- I'd be OUT of there. I'd also advise my parents and relitives about 30-40 miles to the north of me to evacuate.

My family all live in flood plains- and I live next to a bayou. None of those places will be safe.

Now IF I lived in a place that was more accoustomed to hurricanes of varying intensities and the neighbors had a good grip on the CONCEPT of a hurricane... AND if we had better building codes- I might only suggest a 50 mile evac. I would most certainly stick it out through a cat1 or cat2 where I am. Cat3+ is playing with the big kids... and I'm not up to it

[Steve Cosby]

So far, the 50 mile crowd is winning (obviously not a whole lot of votes cast). That just doesn't seem like it would be enough. It might get you out of the storm surge, I would guess but the eye on Issy was 40nm on one vortex message. That's nearly 50 miles all by itself.

I'd be interested to know why you all thought 50 miles is enough?

[deb_in_nc]

That would all depend on when they gave the evacuation order. You have to consider the traffic,
too. I'm talking gridlock. 50 miles would be better than being stuck in traffic with it closing in. I would stick with 50.

Debbie

[Lutrastorm]

50 miles won't even get me off Delmarva. If Issy makes landfall in this general area, we have to give consideration to 3 major bodies of water, Chesapeake and Delaware Bays and the Atlantic. To head west off Delmarva, ya gotta cross the Bay Bridge (major congestion), head north up the State of Delaware, still running parallel to the Atlantic and Delaware Bay, south you have the bay bridge tunnell, probably not a good escape route. Early exit and a good distance is my plan if we're in the cross hairs!

[Steve Cosby]

50 miles won't even get me off Delmarva. If Issy makes landfall in this general area, we have to give consideration to 3 major bodies of water, Chesapeake and Delaware Bays and the Atlantic. To head west off Delmarva, ya gotta cross the Bay Bridge (major congestion), head north up the State of Delaware, still running parallel to the Atlantic and Delaware Bay, south you have the bay bridge tunnell, probably not a good escape route. Early exit and a good distance is my plan if we're in the cross hairs!

What you are really saying here is that you live in an area with no good way to evac. That would be scary in and of itself. I guess it also means you have to decide to evac a day or so earlier than, say, someone living in the panhandle of Florida. Wow.

[BayouVenteux]

IMHO, it really depends a lot on 1) the intensity of the storm 2) the local topography...for example 50-70 miles from the coast in Virginia can have you nearing the rolling hills of the piedmont, while 50-70 miles away from the coast here in southeast Louisiana can still place you in some very low-lying, flood prone areas.

A side note, here in Louisiana, there's a state government plan for any major hurricane evac calling for able-bodied evacuees in threatened areas to move to authorized shelters 100 mi. inland, while any hospitalized or difficult to move evacuees would go to shelters 50 mi. inland.

If you're trying to get away from wind damage and power outages as well, with a storm the size and breadth of Isabel...well, that could involve some extra planning AND extra driving!

[Steve Cosby]

while 50-70 miles away from the coast here in southeast Louisiana can still place you in some very low-lying, flood prone areas.

You could go all the way to Shreveport and still be in flooding danger!

I was through there on business recently while flood warnings and watches were flying.

[abajan]

I guess the companion question would be "Would you stay at a Holiday Inn Express?"

Perhaps but I won't try to confront a bear and box it in its nose or any of that wild stuff I see folks doing in those ads the morning after staying at one.

LOL

[Steve Cosby]

Perhaps but I won't try to confront a bear and box it in its nose or any of that wild stuff I see folks doing in those ads the morning after staying at one.

LOL as well.

Some time ago, somebody gave their prediction of something or the other on this board but started with the phrase: "I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night but..."

I thought that to be appropriate!

[GalvestonDuck]

My answer isn't based on my need to get far away. Mine is based on a previous experience. I was moving down here to TX from KY at the end of September '98. I headed south through TN and into AL. Headed west on I-20 til I got caught up in a rainband from Georges (I had no clue). I decided to stop for the night even though it was only 6:00 pm. Could not find a place anywhere. Everywhere I went, they asked, "Are you trying to find a shelter?" LOL! I was like, "Uh...no, I'm moving to Texas." You can imagine the looks I got -- "In THIS weather??" I drove on, got out of the bad weather, but still couldn't find a place to stay. Stopped every two hours. Finally got to Longview, TX and found a hotel with vacancy -- at 1:30AM.

So, knowing how far inland I-20 is from the coast and knowing how booked all those hotels were in AL, MS, and LA, I've made permanent arrangements to stay with some friends in Dallas if we ever need to evacuate here. Not gonna try to get a hotel since there probably won't be any by the time I get off the island, let alone by the time I get 50, 100, or even 200 miles inland.

[Josephine96]

I myself am about 50 miles inland, but if an Isabel type storm were to come at me.. I'd leave since I am 3 stories up in my apartment building here..

I would probably go northbound a little bit..

[Steve Cosby]

Thanks everyone for your responses. I guess the consensus (other than the nearest desert) turns out to be in the range from 50-100 miles. I seem to remember a statement somewhere that the average intensity loss is one step per 75 miles. That would bring Isabel below "major" status assuming the very long range calls of approximately Category 3 are correct. Interesting, thank you.

[john186292]

[quote="Steve Cosby"][quote="abajan"]Perhaps but ///////////////
Pls tell me how a h.i. express differs fm a normal hotel/motel. I avoid all commercials on principle. Hate commercials.

[john186292]

200miles due inland was not enough with some 100mph storms that drove straight inland, to avoid blackouts.
//// If you need air conditioning, think hard about blackouts. Also, folks call ahead with credit cards and reserve all the motels long before any drive up at all. You, even if you drive before everybody else, will run into full motels ..."full" because reserved by distant phone and cc....so you will have to go to shabby motels. Motels with broken phones, who steal your deposits, with flimsy locks, and to which the three pizza chains will NOT deliver for fear of crime. So an Izzy, much stronger, calls for evac to far more than 200 mi if you need air conditioning and to avoid shabby crook owned motels.
///////////// Middle class folks are not told of how crooked are the motel and store owners in the poor part of town....mass media ignores the butcher shop of life in the poor areas. Stay out of shabby motels if you can. Middle class, you do not know what happens down there. beware.
/// Go 300 mi, get a motel six and be safe. Poll should have the deeper mile option. Desert was fun laugh, but seriously, no help in reality. My joke would be a submarine! LOL

[wxman57]

Before any more of you reply, you might want to look over at the NHC web site for some inland wind projections. I used their calculator to generate a graphic for inland wind penetration with a Cat 3 127 mph storm:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/wind/ne_127.shtml

Note that the graphic is not from ONE single storm, but multiple hits along the east U.S. coasta to give you an idea as to how far inland the high winds could penetrate. Figure about a 15-20 kt movement at landfall. Note that sustained 50kt winds could penetrate as far inland as central PA/NY and western VA. That means 58 mph winds with gusts of 75-100 mph several hundred miles inland! Feel safe at 50 miles from the coast now? You'd be safe from the storm surge, but may still be without power for days.

Here's the main inland wind generator page:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/wi ... reas.shtml

Oh, and I voted for "The nearest desert". Really it all depends upon your main goal for the evacuation. If you want to retreat just far enough inland so that you're out of the storm surge and don't mind trees flying by, then 50 miles may be ok. But if you want to be outside the radius of winds that can knock down power poles and trees, then 200 miles isn't far enough.

[Deenac813]

Thanks Wxman.. that was a great link.. as I can see here in Florida you are very likely to get hurricane winds in a CAT 4 no matter how far inland.. thanks for the info!

[onthedge]

Is that as the crow flies? As a resident of Hatteras Island, we have to go 50 miles north just to get off the island, then its 60mi north to VA Beach and gridlock or 75 mi west on 2 lanes & construction gridlock and no hotels already filled by tourists. Then afterward, we can't get back cause either the bridge is gone or the road is sand blocked. And people ask why I live where I do...when the sun rises and sets over the water, it's a hell of a sight.

[Steve Cosby]

And people ask why I live where I do...when the sun rises and sets over the water, it's a hell of a sight.

The key is not why you live there, but if you know when to leave...

[wxman57]

Is that as the crow flies? As a resident of Hatteras Island, we have to go 50 miles north just to get off the island, then its 60mi north to VA Beach and gridlock or 75 mi west on 2 lanes & construction gridlock and no hotels already filled by tourists. Then afterward, we can't get back cause either the bridge is gone or the road is sand blocked. And people ask why I live where I do...when the sun rises and sets over the water, it's a hell of a sight.

Yep, as the crow flies. Believe me, you don't want to go through this storm if it has over 100 mph winds prior to hitting your area. And if you're planning to leave, you'd better be ready to go on TUESDAY!!. If you wait until Wednesday (within 24hrs of landfall, you'll be traped on the road, most likely)

Think about it, the storm will likely hit Thursday, so too late to evacuate then. That means most people will wait until Wednesday. Those people run the risk of being out on the highway in a HUGE traffic jam as Isabel hits. Many could be killed. And this goes for anyone on the east coast. If you plan to evacuate, you need to be out of there on Tuesday. You cannot imagine the traffic jam you'll run into on Wednesday if you wait.