00Z GFDL

[floydchaser]

Implies landfall near NYC at around 42 N and 73.5 West at 126 hours. Moving the storm at around 20 mph at that time. Models seem to be speeding this thing up...maybe landfall earlier than Friday.

[JetMaxx]

It should accelerate IMO as most September hurricanes do once they pass 30-35N....the rate of acceleration once Isabel is north of the Gulf Stream and over cooler sst's will determine if she's a cat-4 at landfall or a cat-2 IMO.

[floydchaser]

Doubt she'll be a Cat 4 at landfall over the Outer Banks or northward. That is extremely rare (never occured before?). Cat three is still possible. The NHC position of a Cat 3 storm just south of O.C. MD is very bad, yet reports from my family in MD say that the (incompetent, in my opinion) weekend mets in the Baltimore/DC corridor weren't giving much attention to it. An exception was Tony Pann, who I always liked. Apparently, he actually showed all the different model solutions in a graphic to illustrate the uncertainty. That's the way to go....if the public understands what we mets are up against, they can have more sympathy for the uncertainty in these major events.