It gets better and better...

[Stormcenter]

It seems like it gets better and better with every computer run for the U.S. The storm gets further away from the U.S. mainland . I would assume that by Monday or Tuesday they will have her out to sea and not even affecting the U.S. at all except for some strong winds. Guess what I don't buy it. I just looked at the TWC at they have a grid over their satellite loop and she's been tracking due west the last few hours. I don't like that one bit NO matter what the models say.

[JetMaxx]

You and I must be looking at different models...because the 00z UKmet and GFS both came slightly to the left...the UKmet from landfall in Delmarva to landfall over Cape Hatteras, and the GFS from landfall in NYC to landfall in Delaware.

Tonight's ECMWF still brings Isabel inland over the Virginia Beach to Chincoteague area....and the LBAR is now progging landfall near Myrtle Beach...

IMHO Isabel is more likely to make landfall on the U.S. coast tonight than at this time last night...the NOAA jet only seeming to confirm what the models were picking up.

[AussieMark]

I think Isabel is effecting the coast no matter what the question is <B>"WHERE"</B>

[floydchaser]

The only "better" part is that the farther north she strikes, the weaker she'll be, although forward motion will have to be factored into the equation. No model, not even the 00z GFDL now, takes her out to sea. All operational model runs indicate a landfall.

[Stormsfury]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_13.gif

In regards to still thinking Florida... the extrapolated movement is up in Northern Florida. Tonight's model guidance and runs basically IMO, clears Florida ... I'm 99.5% sure of it ... The LBAR is the furthest left and that a NC/SC border hit, and the GFDL is taking Isabel DIRECTLY over Manhattan...not much of a spread in between ...

Once again, I reiterate, the model guidance and consensus is extremely clustered tightly for so far out and has been for several days now. IMO, North Carolina to MD is in the highest risk of a direct hit at this time.

SF

[Colin]

This is not a fish storm...it's going to be QUITE the opposite of that!

[Air Force Met]

NOt sure which runs you are looking at. Could you provide the Z time runs and the model so I could see it for myself? Everything I have looked at is clustered around delmarva and has been that way for 36 hours.