HPC preliminary discussion excerpt .. please read ...

[Stormsfury]

This is a snippet from the HPC discussion this morning and I felt it prudent to post...Looking at the model guidance this morning and this statement from the discussion are a concern ...

STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE AND
AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS
THURS WHILE SLOWING AND BECOMING MORE N-S ORIENTED WITH
STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF. HURCN ISABEL
RACING NWD WELL INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST WILL BECOME
BAROCLINIC ESPECIALLY AS IT IS CAPTURED BY THE MID LEVEL
TROF AND DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW SO THAT BY DAYS 6 and 7 WE
HAVE ONE DEEP COMBINED BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. SOME VERY HVY
RAINS MAY OCCUR OVER SERN CAN/WRN NY AS THIS EVOLUTION
OCCURS.

SOUTHWARD...HURCN ISABEL GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTS TO
TARGET DELMARVA PENINSULA BETWEEN VA CAPES TO DEL BAY.
THERE CONTS TO BE EXCELLENT CONSISTENT GROUPING TARGETING
THIS AREA. THIS TO THE RIGHT OF CURRENT NHC TRACK WHICH
TAKES ISABEL INTO OUTER BANKS AND NWD THRU PAMLICO SOUND
THURS TO NW OF DCA EARLY FRI AND INTO CENTRAL PA DAY 5 FRI
AT CAT 3 INTENSITY ON LANDFALL. THIS HURCN WILL BE A FAST
MOVER AND MAINTAIN HIGH WINDS VERY FAR INLAND. SEE NHC
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AND DISCUSSIONS.

Let me reiterate that everyone in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast really need to think about their preparations now to maintain a level of safety if this situation comes to pass ..

Again, if you haven't seen the Inland Wind Models and MEOW thread with a link to the NHC site regarding this, please take a look at it. This should help with any preparations if you need to do so.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=13856

[Stephanie]

I would be on the northern fringe of 80 - 95 kts for a Cat 3 travelling 25 kts.

[Lowpressure]

100 miles from the coast, but close to the bay. Looks like a power loss potential. 65-maybe 80 here in Fredericksburg.

[nystate]

SOME VERY HVY
RAINS MAY OCCUR OVER SERN CAN/WRN NY AS THIS EVOLUTION
OCCURS.

Hmm....I'm in Western/Central NY...should I be worried about this? What kind of winds should we expect? 25-30 KTS?

[dixiebreeze]

Stormsfury, was this analysis made before the NHC discovered the models failed to include information regarding the ridge?

[Stormsfury]

Stormsfury, was this analysis made before the NHC discovered the models failed to include information regarding the ridge?

That was the prelim... here's an excerpt from the FINAL Discussion released today ...

SOUTHWARD...HURCN ISABEL GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTS TO TARGET
DELMARVA PENINSULA BETWEEN VA CAPES TO DEL BAY. THERE CONTS TO BE
EXCELLENT CONSISTENT GROUPING TARGETING THIS AREA. LATEST 12Z
UKMET AND 12Z GFDL ALSO TARGETING THIS AREA WITH UKMET ADJUSTING
EWD AIMING MORE INTO DEL BAY. TIME WILL TELL IF GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS RIGHT. THIS IS TO THE RIGHT OF CURRENT NHC TRACK
WHICH TAKES ISABEL INTO OUTER BANKS AND NWD THRU ERN PAMLICO
SOUND THURS TO NR DCA AND THEN INTO CENTRAL PA EARLY DAY 5 FRI AT
CAT 3 INTENSITY ON LANDFALL. THIS HURCN WILL BE A FAST MOVER AND
MAINTAIN HIGH WINDS VERY FAR INLAND. SEE NHC WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AND DISCUSSIONS.

The NOGAPS initialized the Bermuda Observations correctly, but still NO MODEL TAKES ISABEL WEST OF HATTERAS, NC.

Anyways, FLORIDA'S chances of getting hit with Isabel are now less than 0.000002% percent.

The NHC's official track has NOT been shifted much farther west.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11(which is still WNW). THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS 2 FORECAST TRACKS OR REASONINGS. RECON FIX
POSITIONS HAVE BEEN COMING IN RIGHT ON TRACK AND THE LATEST 12Z NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ABOUT THE PREVIOUS 2 FORECAST
TRACKS. THE LATEST GFDL RUN HAS CONTINUED ITS WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE
FORECAST TRACK AND THE 96-120H TRACK IS AT LEAST 90 NMI WEST OF THE
00Z TRACK. ONE DISTURBING BIT OF INFORMATION IS THAT THE 12Z
UKMET... GFS...GFDL...AND CANADIAN MODELS DID NOT ANALYZE THE 500
MB HEIGHT AND WIND FIELDS TO THE 12Z BERMUDA UPPER-AIR OBSERVATION
OF 10 KT NORTHEAST WIND AND 5940 METER HEIGHT. THIS OBSERVATION
SUGGESTS THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BERMUDA AND ISABEL EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD FARTHER THAN THOSE FOUR MODELS ARE INDICATING. MORE
RIDGING WOULD SUGGEST THAT...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...(only in the short term) ISABEL
SHOULD MOVE FARTHER WEST THAN THESE MODELS ARE FORECASTING BEFORE
THE HURRICANE BEGINS TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD. (still expected to turn) ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL
INITIALIZED THE 500 MB PROPERLY TO THE BERMUDA OBSERVATION...AND
THE 12Z NOGAPS TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OR WEST OF THE PREVIOUS AND
CURRENT FORECAST TRACKS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN
EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.(just a little west)THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL OF ISABEL COULD OCCUR SINCE
THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD STILL DEEPEN AND DIG MORE
SOUTHWARD THAN THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. THIS COULD INDUCE A MORE
NORTHWARD MOTION AND RESULT IN LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE U.S. EAST
COAST. BUT AS IN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...A LARGE AND VERY
STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN EAST OF
ISABEL AND PREVENT THE HURRICANE FROM RECURVING NORTHEASTWARD. (Not likely to go out to sea)

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 24.1N 67.4W 135 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 24.7N 68.9W 135 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 25.7N 70.2W 135 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 26.7N 71.3W 130 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 28.0N 72.2W 125 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 31.2N 74.0W 120 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 36.5N 76.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 43.5N 78.0W 35 KT...INLAND

Track is shifted just a little bit left ... but stays away from Florida by 500 miles. Looking worse for NC though.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 2058W5.gif