Cape Henry cape May or cape Fear NC?

[Guest]

Lets briefly talk about whether Isabel is going to make landfall by Hatteras--- between Hatteras and Wallops island OR Wallops Island and NYC....

First off in the 11 AM outstanding discussion from Mr. Stewart he mentions that if the trough over the Plains is deeper than this could stand Isabel slightly further north up the coast into New Jersey.

While I am not disagree with the idea that Isabel could come up further into the Midlantic coastline a deeper trough over the Plains states would increase the ridge over New England and drive Isabel further to the West. I'm not saying this is going to necessarily happen but rather I am debating a particular point they need in the synoptic view of things.

Reviewing the day data we see some subtle shifts.... For instance the Canadian which at 00z Sunday was further to the north and hitting Long Island... eastern CT and Massachusetts has made a huge SHIFT at 12z ... to the LEFT... and brings Isabel into Virginia Beach and Norfolk at 96 hrs then into Washington D.C. or just the last over Dulles.

On the other hand the 12z GFS is as slightly further north... WHY?

The last few runs of the GFS-- 00Z 6Z and now the 12Z has it as well --shows NEW s/w over Quebec that COULD affect the western Atlantic ridge and thus allow a slightly further N landfall--- say ACY or SBY

LOOK over QUEBEC here on the 00z GFS
http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/3e/mrf_500_3e.html
http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/3e/mrf_500_4d.html

The ECMWF has NO such s/w at all...
http://www.sca.uqam.ca/models/ecmwf...Z_120_0500.html

or the 00Z Ukmet http://www.sca.uqam.ca/models/ukmet...N_096_0000.html

Nor does the 12z GGEM -- which is why it is so much further W than the 00z run and a
direct hit over ORF

http://www.sca.uqam.ca/models/gemglb_am ... _0000.html
http://www.sca.uqam.ca/models/gemglb_am ... _0000.html

12z NOGAPS MUCH further sand W like the 12z GGEM

http://www.fnoc.navy.mil/products/WXMAP ... .namer.gif

http://www.fnoc.navy.mil/products/WXMAP ... .namer.gif

Because the 12z GFS and ONLY the 12z GFS --- has this short wave over North Quebec I suspect that is why the GFS is a BIT further up the coast... Bottom Line despite the GFS I still think we are looking at a eastern NC OR Lower Chessy bay hit... and a Sharp turn TO THE LEFT at or just after landfall. I would not be surprised if the eye / center of Isabel passes over or WEST of DCA.

If Isabel does what the Ecmwf is doing This could be the worst Hurricane in ORF in 180 years ( going back to 1821 which passed over ORF SBY ACY and CPK) . But in order for this scenario to happen Isabel HAS to come in from the SE or ESE direction. IF she makes landfall say over ILM or EWB then ORF wont be hit Nearly as hard -- it will be another relatively ordinary east coast hurricane scenario -- much like FLOYD Belle and Gloria thing.

DT

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[JetMaxx]

Hi DT...welcome to Storm2K!!!

[Stormsfury]

DT, glad to see you posting here and as always, an excellent analysis.

SF

[mike01205]

Welcome DT great analysis

[mitchell]

very scary for tidewater into the delmarva:

[rainydaze]

DT

I haven't heard much about a stall the past couple of days. Is that still a possibility, that Isabel will stall somewhere?