“Landfall along the U.S Mid-Atlantic coast somewhere between North Carolina and New Jersey between 4 or 5 days (Thursday or Friday) is appearing more and more likely,” Stewart said. “Little or no significant weakening is expected to occur until after landfall occurs.”
MSNBC article.
That doesn't square with their 5 day intensity outlook or what I heard on this board. Did he mispeak?
BUT....He did say that intensity should be harder to knock down with this storm because the eye was rigid and it would take much longer to weaken this storm.
Thoughts welcomed.
Stewart Interview: Little or no significant weakening
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soonertwister
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I read the research paper...
about "annular" hurricanes, and Isabel appears to be a classic case of one, maybe the strongest ever observed.
I noticed from that article that from peak intensity out 72 hours, the NHC intensity forecasts have averaged 22 knots TOO LOW for this type of storm. If, as it appears, Isabel is in another reintensification stage, and if subsequent to that Isabel is showing a repeat of her highest intensity tomorrow at this time, then it appears to me that there's a very real possibility of a strong Cat-4 or even a minimal Cat-5 storm just off the US coast at 11 a.m. Thursday morning.
I'm starting to get really horrific visions about this storm. If she were to take a dead hit on Chesapeake Bay, coastal residents on both sides of the bay would then experience well beyond minimal hurricane force winds up to perhaps 25 miles or more from shore. It is questionable that the Chesapeake Bay bridge would still be there after a hit of this magnitude, and the damage that could occur would likely far outdistance the punishment delivered by Andrew.
And just a tiny track adjustment to the right could result in devastation all along the coast from the Outer Banks all the way up to Long Island.
I shudder at the thought. And the NHC has repeatedly stated that the radius of the hurricane force winds could significantly increase as Isabel nears the coast, as if those people need any more possible bad news.
I visited the Baltimore Sun website this morning, and there is scarcely even a mention of Isabel at their site. That seems to be terribly complacent, because I'm estimating that if this hurricane does indeed hit near Chesapeake Bay, the absolute last day to evacuate would be Wednesday, in an area notoriously difficult to evacuate because of the circuitous routes that must be taken to get out. For instance, they will shut down the Chesapeake Bay bridge, as the potential for a catastrophe of nightmarish proportions is too high for them to risk having thousands upon thousands of people on that bridge with an approaching hurricane.
I hope those people are starting to get the message LOUD AND CLEAR that now is not the time to consider making preparations, but the time to act. These people absolutely have to know whether or not they are staying or leaving by no later than bedtime Tuesday night.
I hope that the local emergency officials will err on the side of caution in a storm of this magnitude. If they are in the boresite, I don't think I would allow anyone to stay around on the barrier islands adjacent to the Delmarva coastline, for instance.
(Where a cousin of mine happens to live...)
I noticed from that article that from peak intensity out 72 hours, the NHC intensity forecasts have averaged 22 knots TOO LOW for this type of storm. If, as it appears, Isabel is in another reintensification stage, and if subsequent to that Isabel is showing a repeat of her highest intensity tomorrow at this time, then it appears to me that there's a very real possibility of a strong Cat-4 or even a minimal Cat-5 storm just off the US coast at 11 a.m. Thursday morning.
I'm starting to get really horrific visions about this storm. If she were to take a dead hit on Chesapeake Bay, coastal residents on both sides of the bay would then experience well beyond minimal hurricane force winds up to perhaps 25 miles or more from shore. It is questionable that the Chesapeake Bay bridge would still be there after a hit of this magnitude, and the damage that could occur would likely far outdistance the punishment delivered by Andrew.
And just a tiny track adjustment to the right could result in devastation all along the coast from the Outer Banks all the way up to Long Island.
I shudder at the thought. And the NHC has repeatedly stated that the radius of the hurricane force winds could significantly increase as Isabel nears the coast, as if those people need any more possible bad news.
I visited the Baltimore Sun website this morning, and there is scarcely even a mention of Isabel at their site. That seems to be terribly complacent, because I'm estimating that if this hurricane does indeed hit near Chesapeake Bay, the absolute last day to evacuate would be Wednesday, in an area notoriously difficult to evacuate because of the circuitous routes that must be taken to get out. For instance, they will shut down the Chesapeake Bay bridge, as the potential for a catastrophe of nightmarish proportions is too high for them to risk having thousands upon thousands of people on that bridge with an approaching hurricane.
I hope those people are starting to get the message LOUD AND CLEAR that now is not the time to consider making preparations, but the time to act. These people absolutely have to know whether or not they are staying or leaving by no later than bedtime Tuesday night.
I hope that the local emergency officials will err on the side of caution in a storm of this magnitude. If they are in the boresite, I don't think I would allow anyone to stay around on the barrier islands adjacent to the Delmarva coastline, for instance.
(Where a cousin of mine happens to live...)
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JetMaxx
Thats one thing that really scares me...IF this hurricane doesn't weaken...and slams into Cape Hatteras or Virginia Beach at 150 mph, those folks will see a storm surge unlike anything ANYONE has ever seen before.....
All those millions of people who have weathered Gloria and other weaker hurricanes over the years since 1944 (and it passed EAST of Chesapeake Bay...meaning less storm surge) may be slow to leave, or refuse -- because they've never had too before.
A lot of people died on the Mississippi Coast in 1969 BECAUSE they simply didn't comprehend how powerful hurricane Camille would be...how high the water levels would be. They had survived hurricane Betsy will water in the basement or in the first floor and thought Camille would be no worse....and when the storm surge was 25' feet (15' higher than during Betsy)...those folks who'd survived all previous hurricanes died. I hope and pray we don't see that occur around Tidewater Virginia, the Maryland and Delaware shore, and around Chesapeake Bay
The news media and meteorologists need to drill it into people's heads that this will likely be the worst hurricane they've ever experienced, it will take a path that will maximize the storm surge in Chesapeake Bay (and Delaware Bay)...even up into Annapolis and Baltimore; and will put water levels higher than anyone living has ever seen.
If they don't and many people in low areas refuse to evacuate, we may witness a catastrophe :o
All those millions of people who have weathered Gloria and other weaker hurricanes over the years since 1944 (and it passed EAST of Chesapeake Bay...meaning less storm surge) may be slow to leave, or refuse -- because they've never had too before.
A lot of people died on the Mississippi Coast in 1969 BECAUSE they simply didn't comprehend how powerful hurricane Camille would be...how high the water levels would be. They had survived hurricane Betsy will water in the basement or in the first floor and thought Camille would be no worse....and when the storm surge was 25' feet (15' higher than during Betsy)...those folks who'd survived all previous hurricanes died. I hope and pray we don't see that occur around Tidewater Virginia, the Maryland and Delaware shore, and around Chesapeake Bay
The news media and meteorologists need to drill it into people's heads that this will likely be the worst hurricane they've ever experienced, it will take a path that will maximize the storm surge in Chesapeake Bay (and Delaware Bay)...even up into Annapolis and Baltimore; and will put water levels higher than anyone living has ever seen.
If they don't and many people in low areas refuse to evacuate, we may witness a catastrophe :o
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hurricanedude
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