Ridge still strong... Bridging coming up

[John]

Based on the latest visible and WV satellite imagery it appears to me that Isabel is still building the Ridge to her North as she heads in a general Westward motion. Clearly the Hurricane is not at or near the base of the Ridge yet. Visible imagery strongly suggests the Ridge extends out to 75W. As the remnants of Henri continue to collapse and fill, the ridge could build and bridge toward the SC coastline. This is something im watching very closely since it would keep the Hurricane on a track toward the West all the way to the East coast. Im still crunching the Numbers and really hope to have something solid for you all to stand on early this evening. I will post an Hour before the NHC Discussion, IMO the NHC Discussion is going to blow some of you away so be ready.
More later

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Thank-you!

[Deenac813]

Thanks for you post.. I think getting different opinions is great and would love to see what you come up with!

[Stormchaser16]

Can you provide a link real quick to show the ridging please?

[ColdFront77]

I agree with that assessment. Isabel is truly on the southern portion of the ridge as the trough to her north moves away.

[John]

If you Show me how to post a Photo I would be more than Happy to.

[Stormchaser16]

Hmmmmm well i would just take a link lol...

But to do a photo right here, use the IMG tag at the top, when it pops up in the message box, insert the URL in beyween the IMG tags

[spaceisland]

Even a ridge building at 70-75 west would still allow Isabel to start making her more NW turn sometime tomorrow, right?
Bottom line: every hour that goes by with a westerly component to any degree is closer to the CONUS coastline.
I agree with you... the northerly turn may be further west than models indicated.

[dixiebreeze]

Thank you John. Will look forward to your 10 p.m. analysis. BTW, doesn't the WV image pretty well show the bridging you mentioned?

[Vortex]

Gfs early this past week for many runs indicated exactly what where discussing. It indicated a wnw/nw heading then a slow down just east of the bahamas at around 25-26n/75W while the ull filled the ridge bridged and she headed west for an initial landfall in Fl. I'm not implying this will happen Tpc has a good handle I think but this was anticipated by at least 5 runs of the GFS last week.

[dixiebreeze]

I think you may be right Vortex.

[beenthru6]

I too will be very interested in seeing your analysis. Here in the Myrtle Beach area, our mets are practically sounding the all clear, which would be great if it could be reliable information.

[Thunder44]

Somebody we don't know a thing about posts here and says what some want to hear and get's praised for it.

[Stormsfury]

GFS 18z in...

Shifted slightly westward ... slightly with Isabel ... left about 30 miles ... Still NC/VA ...

SF

[ColdFront77]

Gfs early this past week for many runs indicated exactly what where discussing. It indicated a wnw/nw heading then a slow down just east of the bahamas at around 25-26n/75W while the ull filled the ridge bridged and she headed west for an initial landfall in Fl. I'm not implying this will happen Tpc has a good handle I think but this was anticipated by at least 5 runs of the GFS last week.

Absolutely right, Vortex. I have been thinking about those continous model runs five and six days ago between yesterday and today.

I would think that all model runs throughout the duration of a tropical system should be referred to. Sure, the latest model run guidance is important, but what has been released "must hold water."

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

graphic???

[ericinmia]

Here is a linke to an animation of those old GFS models that predicted the strike in Fl like 5 time in a row!

Interesting to look back and compare to now!

don't cook me, but the storm is nearing now where the old gfs had predicted it to be, and the build up in the gulf that is there now, also is in this old model loop! INTERESTING...

http://stormsfury1.com/Weather/TropicalWeather/JAVA30/GFS18z091003.html

[Air Force Met]

One difference...that was many runs ago. It doesn't matter how many time in a row a model predicts something...when it changes it's tune...then sticks with it for days...and then it is only a couple of days away from singing that new song...take it to the bank that the old tune that it was singing a week ago at the 240 hour period is not going to happen.

[ColdFront77]

One difference...that was many runs ago. It doesn't matter how many time in a row a model predicts something...when it changes it's tune...then sticks with it for days...and then it is only a couple of days away from singing that new song...take it to the bank that the old tune that it was singing a week ago at the 240 hour period is not going to happen.

No reason not to agree with that, Air Force Met. But still, there certainly has been a lot of variables to consider in the last 1 to 8 1/2 days.

[Air Force Met]

Yep...and the GFS is notorius for the flip flops...especially the control model which is what most people look at. I like to look at all the GFS models...the ensemble...all of them. It gives you a better idea of the variables and what the model is thinking.