This storm has 4 options.......

[~SirCane]

1. Isabel does exactly what the track is set at right now by getting pushed NW and NNW by the trough, goes up toward North Carolina and Virginia, and possibly up toward Long Island. Chance: 50%

2. The trough has a lesser effect on Isabel than expected and ends up pushing her NW with landfall anywhere between Jacksonville, FL and Columbia, SC. Chance: 30%

3. The trough is not able to pick up this massive storm and Isabel plows its way toward Florida unexpectedly and enters the Gulf of Mexico. I have heard this as a possibility, and if I were in the East Coast of Florida, I would be wary (and prepared, just in case) of her till she goes past 30 N!! No, Florida is not OUT of the woods till then. Chance: 15%

4. The trough ends up pushing Isabel much farther North and East than currently projected, and the East Coast of the United States dodges a BIG bullet. Let's hope this happens! Chance: 5%

[calidoug]

Where did you "hear" about #3?

The GOM?!

Try about 0.5 % on your #3. The current conditions rule this out completely. It would take some massive, unforeseen large-scale change in the weather over North America for this to happen. And that doesn't have much probability at all.

[Anonymous]

SirCane I have been saying option 3 for over a week now. I remain to get hassled for it but I don't care. Good list.

[~SirCane]

go to flhurricane.com and click on the newest headline. You will see what I mean.

[WhirlWind]

Thanks Sir Cane - Interesting site.
Carrie

[Josephine96]

Very good info Sir Cane.. Nice post

[ColdFront77]

I still don't see how that chances of Isabel are that high to miss Florida. It isn't like we have a stronger cold front a bit closer to the storm and no ridge in place or a ridge in the Atlantic that isn't moving at all or moving eastward.

At least one (may two out) of the four Orlando area meteorologists said that there still is a chance that the ridge build in enough and the cold front that is already weak and has been expected to stall and washout over northern Florida which would cause Isabel to move more westerly toward or hitting central Florida.

[obxhurricane]

Give up the Florida strike people. You guys can relax down there.

Look at water vapor imagery...look at the unanimous model guidance...look at the latest satellite imagery showing a distinct NW wobble and the cloud pattern starting to become elongated to the north of the cyclone.

I said it 3 days agao and I'll say it again. Florida will not see this cane.

There really is only one scenario for Isabel...and we've known this all along. Or at least the last 5 days. The ridge to the north and the second trough will squeeze Isabel into NC or the Delmarva in the Thursday to Friday time frame.

Also...you guys could do a lot by learning climotology. Western Atlantic September hurricanes do not hit the East coast of Florida. It's very rare. North Carolina on the other hand averages one quite frequently.

I do not intend this post to be bashing anyone. I'm trying my best to educate you guys. Isabel is not going to Florida and it is not going out to sea.

[ColdFront77]

I understand climatology, but, as you know weather systems do not always move in the direction based only on climatology.

There have been cold fronts that have encompassed the entire state of Florida, west of Tampa, south of Miami and east of Daytona Beach and Melbourne; in fact it occurred the middle of August, last year.

[GalvestonDuck]

I just keep remembering what some have said about how Andrew was supposed to turn, but didn't.

[tropical]

I just keep remembering what some have said about how Andrew was supposed to turn, but didn't.

As do most of us in Florida!

We're not dummies... We just want to see this dog off our doorstep!

[mf_dolphin]

I just keep remembering what some have said about how Andrew was supposed to turn, but didn't.

The information about Andrew is a little misleading. The fairly new (at that time) dynamic models all showed Andrew turning toward Florida just like he did. The older models were the ones showing the turn. The official forecast if I remember right did show the Florida landfall.