The Outer Banks vs. the track of Isabel

[ncweatherwizard]

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweather/isabel.html

Discusses briefly what would happen given different potential tracks of Isabel.

[Pebbles]

Was having a discussion earlier with the Mom down in NC about what might happen with the exact track concerning the Outer Banks.

She was saying if the eye goes east of the banks then they would offer some protection to the mainland.

BUT...what if the eye passes right over the sound in between the mainland and outerbanks? This could cause allot of water to be pushed up from the sound into the rivers and possibly both the main land and islands suffering direct hits from such a large diameter eyewall (without technically being a hit from the storm). The poor islands would be a disaster and with the flooding situation already occuring in eastern NC adding water, surge and wind looks pretty bad.

Anyone's thought, feelings, or knowlege is much appriciated on this.

[nc5krunner]

Pebbles, I hope that it doesn't pass over the sound... I spent a good part of the weekend getting my house and boat on the north side of the Pamlico River ready for the storm. We got hit really hard both in 96 and 99 and it looks like we may not be in very good shape this time either.

[SolakNC]

From experience...worst case scenario for the outer banks would be the
storm to parallel the mainland coast, up through both the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds... the initial onshore winds would leave the banks dry on the soundside, but major overwash on the ocean,...th all the rivers backing up with the sound waters, flooding mainland Hyde, Dare, and Currituck Co's....then as the storm went north, the sudden surge of the backed up waters would surge on the soundside, affecting all the soundside communities and Roanoke Island. A straight crossover of the sound would have a similar effect, but on a more isolated locale.
Tom

[obxhurricane]

Yes...Solak has it right. A track that takes the eye over the sounds or straddling the Outer Banks is the worst case scenario. In this case...the sounds and Banks would experience the full compass of winds. Initially the onshore winds ahead of the eye would cause the ocean surge...and a storm this strong can overwash entire stretches of the Banks. At the same time...the sounds would be emptied on the Banks side and all of the soudn water would be piled up on the mainland and in the rivers. Once the eye passes and the winds clock around to a westerly direction, the sound waters rush back towards the banks in a large wall of water. This is what we bankers like to call "The inlet maker".

I'm hoping for a track east of the Banks.

[SolakNC]

I'm hoping for a track east of the Banks.

I fly back into KDH tomorrow, so a track 200 M E would suite me just fine

[obxhurricane]

You live in KDH?

[SolakNC]

yep----6 blocks west of the K-Mart

[obxhurricane]

Holy poop! We will be riding Isabel out at my friends house on 4th st!

I live in Baum Bay Harbor...but I have too many pine trees above my house and too much sound tide potential here. So we're sending the woman and children away and plan to hunker down on 4th st.

[SolakNC]

Same street----on Martone....I work at Colony IV

[ncweatherwizard]

Good point there. I tended to focus on what would happen with the first half of the storm rather than the second. Could easily be trouble up the sounds, depending on where it goes, based on what was brought up. So let me start another long day...