Nightly forecast for Isabel... still up the Chesepeake

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atlantic13fd.html



glad that this will be the last one I have to write for a while as I am incredibly tired after working the entire week-end

[vortex100]

Very nice forecast discussion and a plausible senario. Looking at the GFDL, which has consistently underestimated the tenacity of this storm, the winds will continue to stay in the 50-70kt range in the northeastern sector of this storm as it moves into central New York state and then into Lake Ontario. Windspread wind and rain will make conditions very dangerous on the lake, likely stopping most traffic moving through the eastern end of the Great Lakes system.

[HurricaneQueen]

Thanks, Derek and get some rest. You will need it later in the week!!! Lynn

[nystate]

Note: Guidance is suggesting a very fast motion. Therefore, hurricane force winds are likely to extend very far inland. it is not totally impossible that a secondary landfall may occur on the shores of Lake Ontario, in Canada.

Sorry, but what exactly does this mean??? I live a few miles from the Lake...should I be worried? I haven't been, until I read this and vortex's comments. Any info is appreciated as I would like to know if I need to do anything to prepare for this...

[rainstorm]

this could be historic

[vortex100]

Those in upstate New York state and on Lake Ontario should prepare for a very windy and rainy event late Thursday into Friday. This will be like being in an extended severe thunderstorm event. Make sure any lawn furniture or other loose objects are stored inside. Stay off any lakes or rivers. Try to avoid driving, especially in high-profile vehicles. Watch for school closings.

[Colin]

What about E PA vortex? :o :o :o Hopefully my school will be ripped apart...DARN... But seriously, what can I look for here in E PA?

[Stephanie]

Probably the same as Upstate NY Colin. Everyone no matter how near or far from the shore and initial point of impact should make sure that everything outside is secured and if you are in a flood-prone area consider moving to a higher ground or shelter.

[Derek Ortt]

This means there is the potential for tropical storm force sustaiend winds and higher gusts. Storm surge would not be a problem for you, that would be a Canadian problem (I have no idea in the world as to what exactly the hights would be, I may need ot check Hazel's Toronto surge to get a clue)

[Derek Ortt]

It's also not enitrely a rest period for me. I am signed up to give tomorrow's HRD briefing (I am definately the anti-Cantore as whenever I give the brifings, there is something happening)

[azskyman]

Just had a conversation with a 33 year veteran of tropical weather...living in Maine...who sees this scenaro developing much like Hazel. Like many of you, he's up late. It's only 8:10 here in the west!

[Anonymous]

What year did Hazel occur? Wasn't that in 1954? What was Hazel's track and how did she affect northern Virginia?



-Jeb

[WXBUFFJIM]

Washington DC had wind gusts over 100 mph in Hazel with flooding rains!!

Jim

[JetMaxx]

Hazel was a hurricane very similar to Isabel...except she came westward through the Caribbean....causes major damage in the southern Windward Islands in early October.

As Hazel moved slowly west through the central Caribbean with 125 mph winds, a deep trough turned her sharply north and NNE into western Haiti....hundreds died in floods and mudslides on the SE peninsula...but Hazel weakened to a TS over the island.

Once reemerging from the north coast of Haiti, Hazel began intensifying rapidly...winds were back to 100 mph as the hurricane crossed Great Inagua in the SE Bahamas.

The original trough that turned Hazel north across Haiti had moved on, but an even stronger trough was approaching from the west. Hurricane Hazel began to move north, then NW....accelerating between high pressure to the east and the approaching strong cold front -- and just as with Isabel, there was enough high pressure to block recurvature away from the U.S.

Hazel struck the Carolina coast between Myrtle Beach and the North Carolina state line around daybreak on October 15th. Even though it was so late in the season, 1954 had been a blazing hot summer/ early fall (98° in ATL on 9/19 and 95° on 10/5)...and the Gulf Stream was loaded with energy.

At landfall, hurricane Hazel was moving at a forward speed of 45 mph, and sustained winds were 130-140 mph (938 mb/ 27.70")...gusts were over 160. The results were devastating along the Carolina coast from Myrtle Beach to Morehead City....every fishing pier destroyed for 170 miles.
The storm surge was 15-17' high, and beach homes were swept away enmasse. Beaches south of Wilmington were completely wiped out...

Because of Hazel's extremely fast forward speed, her hurricane force winds continued well inland as she passed through North Carolina, Virginia, central Pennsylvania, and into western NY before entering Canada (just as Isabel is forecast, Hazel turned toward the NNW over Virginia...passing near Buffalo, NY).

Winds gusted to over 80 mph at cities from Raleigh to Richmond to Washington DC to Harrisburg, PA...and along the coast, winds exceeded 100 mph (Hazel was a very large hurricane, and the fast forward speed caused extreme winds even though she passed inland 100 miles from Norfolk and Ocean City). At New York City, a peak gust of 113 mph was measured and there was extensive damage. West of Hazel's storm track, severe flooding occurred across the eastern slopes of the Appalachians.

There were 95 deaths in the US, and dozens in Ontario, Canada (Hazel was still a dangerous storm even after being over land all day)....and Isabel will likely be worse....with much more of an effect along the Atlantic Coast from Virginia to New York...higher storm surge and winds.