I Suspect It's Weakening

[abajan]

Just looking at the latest IR Floater image, that's my feeling. Maximum sustained winds will probably be 150 mph at 11:00 PM.

[Deenac813]

weaking maybe but certainly not weak! She is major.. could the weaking be a sign of her turning also?? I am such a novice so if this is a dumb question sorry!

[calidoug]

Yep, she's getting a bit ragged looking. Trough is eating into inner core, disturbing perfect symmetry. I wonder if she'll lose her Annular characteristics? If so, expect the eye to contract, and the intensity to be much less stable.

OTOH, she could survive this challenge, and regain perfect annular symmetry.

I'm sure the NHC will comment in the 11pm disc.

This loop shows the change particularly well:

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

[abajan]

could the weaking be a sign of her turning also?? I am such a novice so if this is a dumb question sorry!

I don't think there's any connection between weakening and turning. BTW, I'm pretty much a novice myself!

[vortex100]

There seems to be some significant disruption to the flow on the western side of the storm. Cloud tops have warmed signficantly in that part of the storm and outflow has decreased somewhat. This should be temporary and may be due to some shearing.

[dixiebreeze]

Yes, Vortex100, in fact that's what was mentioned in the NHC 8 p.m. Discussion.

[calidoug]

Actually, Vortex, the NHC discussion only mentioned the impact on *outflow* on the W side, unless there's some piece of that discussion secretly encoded for a select few that I can't read.

Since that time, as you correctly observed, the influence of the trough/winds in that area has begun to impact the core of the cyclone.