I am no expert, but...there is no way.....

[Anonymous]

Isabel is going to blow right into this current weather pattern. Too much upper air flow blowing from NW to SE and will hinder the forward motion. I actually think we may see a stall seting up in the next 24 hours.

Do the link.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... g&itype=wv

She cannot just go into the flow as it is set up now. Two days from now. That may well be a diferent story. The question is. How close to Florida does Isabel get, before she goes NW/N?

[southerngale]

Hmmm....Isabel sure looks nearly due west to me in that loop, but looks more wnw on IR4. :o

Maybe my eyes are fried.....too much loop looking....lol

[JetMaxx]

Isabel may indeed slow to a crawl before turning to the NNW and accelerating...just as the GFS indicated in the area near 24-25N and 68-70W. I've already seen indications this evening the forward motion is slowing...

[Stormsfury]

The slowing before the turn is actually expected .. I've seen all the globals indicate such a slowing with this turn and then an acceleration afterwards.

Not surprised, actually.

SF

[azskyman]

Ironically, that upper level swirl that seems so insignificant just to the southwest of Tampa might just gain enough punch in the next 30 hours to actually weaken that blocking upper air pattern. I'm not a professional either, but I've watched similar structures become critical pieces of the puzzle in other events such as these.

[Anonymous]

I see that as well.

Is that a high pressure center, sitting over the Tampa area?

If so, then the upper level flow would seem to hold the trof up that is now situated over the GOM and would then steer or stall Isabel over the NE Bahama's.

Is this incorrect?

[HurricaneQueen]

That's a great loop for seeing the many players in the future of this hurricane. Can anyone point out exactly which trough is supposed to draw her north? Thanks, Lynn