Isabel Thoughts this evening.

[John]

This is going to be my best shot, I will be on most of the evening to make adjustments if necessary. Let me start off again with the Ridge to the north of Isabel, Since im not going to blow off the TWD, I am going to say I believe the strength of this ridge is really being underestimated by the Models. Why you may ask = an answer. Initializations has been weak with the Southern Periphery of the Mid Level Ridge to the Hurricanes North, and this is where all this Norfolk VA stuff is coming from. Guidance is suggesting the Western Periphery of the ridge is weak and allows a turn much quicker to the WNW and NW bringing the Hurricane into VA. Any other Met out there tonight watching the Hurricanes Movement must admit, and come clean here, the ridge is stronger because the Hurricane is nowhere even close to a turn to the NW.

This Brings me to my first forecast of Hurricane Isabel, Isabel is expected to be steered around the Periphery of the Mid Tropospheric Anticyclone over the extreme Western Atlantic, which was depicted by the Synoptic Surveillance mission last evening with the NOAA jet. This is not in debate, however the Ridge has been building to the West in tandem with the Hurricane, WV Imagery shows the western extension of the Ridge building out to 77 W. This is rather important since it will only delay the expected turn, therefor Im not looking for land fall North of NC and never was. Isabel is likely to make a very wide turn once she reaches the Western extension of the ridge at 77 W, the important part is how far North will she be, IMO she is likely to be South of 30N. I am looking for a land fall point between Charleston, SC and Wilmington, NC. One must not forget that if the Hurricane has enough Ridging left the possibility of a portion of the Hurricanes Western edge could brush parts of the Florida coastline. Residents From NC South to Charleston should begin going over their Hurricane Disaster plans.
John

[chris_fit]

Im gonna back you up here John, take a look at frames 10-13.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html


Cheers!
~Chris

[Anonymous]

I keep seeing how the upper flow is from the NW to SE, at this current time, by looking at the WV imagery. Don't know how else to say it, but I don't see how she turns NW before she makes a very close call with Florida. The only way, is if she stalls, which is quite possible...IMO.

I say she doesn't get past the GA/SC border for a direct hit.

[wxman57]

John, I see the ridge only extending just barely past 70W now. If you look at Isabel's western side on WV imagery, you can see that it is flattening out - an indication it is now butting up against the trof along the east coast. The upper low center that is lifting out is near eastern NC, but its cirulation extends east to near 70W as well. No sign of a ridge west to 77W on WV. Do you have the 00Z 500mb analysis for the Atlantic handy? I'm at home and can't look at as much data from here.

[stormssteve]

Do we another "wobble"west at the end of the loop.Obviously the further west she goes ,the father south there will be landfall.Canes this powerfull are very tricky at the least wobble can make all the difference for someone's area on this board!

[azskyman]

All eyes on not only her path as of daybreak on Monday, but also whatever forward speed she may still have.

And keep an eye on that seemingly unimportant upper level swirl to the SW of Tampa. Any strength building in that vortex could break down the steering currents for another hundred miles to the east...enough to truly impact Isabel's plan.

[chris_fit]

Now 4 frames.... still moving due west

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html


Cheers!
~Chris

[John]

John, I see the ridge only extending just barely past 70W now. If you look at Isabel's western side on WV imagery, you can see that it is flattening out - an indication it is now butting up against the trof along the east coast.


Wxman57 I think you missed what I was saying here, the ridge should be building out to 77w as it keeps the beat just N of the Cyclone. I do see the western side of Isabel flattening out and agree with you. However I believe as the swirl along the NC VA coast collapses more the outflow will return to the western side. Looks to me like SC NC land fall coming up here unless a stall is in the cards later tonight. I do believe some nasty weather is going to make it into the NW Bahamas sometime tomorrow at this time.
John

[dixiebreeze]

A sensible forecast is a good way to wrap up a day of weather watching. Thanks John.

[JQ Public]

I've been hearing about this northward turn for a loooong time. Its still looks like its gonna be coming straight for us here in the carolina's. I agree with you guys.