Wind Profiles for Landfall --- Want to be Scared?

[wxman57]

Using our hurricane program, we can construct approximate wind profiles based upon 5 wind radii (25, 39, 58, 74, and 100 mph). Just to see what we have forecast now, I ran the wind profile generator for a few locations in the path of Isabel. We're assuming about a 110kt-115kt wind as it nears Cape Hatteras and decreasing as it moves inland. Note the 4-5 hours at 100+ mph and the LONG period of hurricane-force winds!

http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/hatteraswinds.gif

http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/orfwinds.gif

http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/vabeachwinds.gif (pretty much same as norfolk)

http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/baltimorewinds.gif

I can run these profiles for any latitude/longitude or city or zip code. They're based upon OUR wind radii, which we try to reduce over land to account for friction/turbulence.

[mf_dolphin]

That's a real eye opener! I hope people pay attention! 4+ hours of 100+ winds can do a trendous amout of damage.

[Guest]

Wow................Great info wxman57................Wanna try this zip code out................19971............Rehoboth Beach DE....................Thanks...........

[JetMaxx]

Very alarming wxman57....thanks for posting it....sustained at 125 mph with higher gusts in Tidewater Virginia and 95 mph at Baltimore...yikes!!

[wxman57]

Keep in mind, those are only approximations. For one thing, our model doesn't take into account the interior of the eye. Generally, that's not a big deal, but for Isabel that could be 90 minutes of relative calm between two sharp spikes.

Anyone want to see a wind profile for another city?

[Stormsfury]

Whoa!... coincides with the inland model and MEOW (Maximum Extent of Winds) from the NHC link I posted earlier today. A definite thanks for sharing.

SF

[Guest]

YES RICHMOND VA

Keep in mind, those are only approximations. For one thing, our model doesn't take into account the interior of the eye. Generally, that's not a big deal, but for Isabel that could be 90 minutes of relative calm between two sharp spikes.

Anyone want to see a wind profile for another city?

[Pebbles]

Keep in mind, those are only approximations. For one thing, our model doesn't take into account the interior of the eye. Generally, that's not a big deal, but for Isabel that could be 90 minutes of relative calm between two sharp spikes.

Anyone want to see a wind profile for another city?

actually yes, if I may be so humble to ask. Would like to see numbers for mainland NC. New Bern, NC (28560 is zip code) is preferred if you can't do that then I could live with Wilmington, NC

My mother is even more of a hurricane fanatic then I am and this would interest her very much due to the sound and all the river and I know there are other NC mainlanders hiding in corners around here somewhere to

[Anonymous]

WXMAN57, I would like you to enter 22193 (Woodbridge, VA) into your wind profile calculations.

What can Woodbridge, VA expect from this storm and for how long? And how much rain?


-Jeb

[cycloneye]

57 I would like to see how New York City will be in the windfield.

[themusk]

I'm busy trying to convince my midwestern cousins transplanted to VA that strong hurricanes can remain dangerous far inland-- can you run something on Richmond, VA?

(BTW-- hello, new to this board, weather watcher (untrained/amateur), emergency management (trained, but retired on disability so I guess that still makes me an "amateur" ))

[southeastva]

I am in Smithfield, VA about 21 miles from Norfolk(as the crow flies). Would the winds be similar to Norfolk?

[Stormsfury]

I am in Smithfield, VA about 21 miles from Norfolk(as the crow flies). Would the winds be similar to Norfolk?

I can answer that with a yes ... maybe subtract about 5-10 mph from the maxima of winds ... but still potential very dangerous.

SF

[wxman57]

How about this -- A graphic showing the extent of the winds along the path of Isabel...

http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/izzywinds.gif

[cjh034]

wxman 57, how about 21014? Thanks.

[wxman57]

I am in Smithfield, VA about 21 miles from Norfolk(as the crow flies). Would the winds be similar to Norfolk?

Afraid so.

[wxman57]

Here's Richmond. Note that Richmond calculates out to be only 9 miles from 74 mph wind and 32 miles from 100+ mph wind. From 4 days out, I wouldn't exactly be jumping for joy there....

http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/richmondwinds.gif

[wxman57]

Keep in mind, those are only approximations. For one thing, our model doesn't take into account the interior of the eye. Generally, that's not a big deal, but for Isabel that could be 90 minutes of relative calm between two sharp spikes.

Anyone want to see a wind profile for another city?

actually yes, if I may be so humble to ask. Would like to see numbers for mainland NC. New Bern, NC (28560 is zip code) is preferred if you can't do that then I could live with Wilmington, NC

My mother is even more of a hurricane fanatic then I am and this would interest her very much due to the sound and all the river and I know there are other NC mainlanders hiding in corners around here somewhere to

Here's Woodbridge. 100+ mph winds are indicated missing you to the east, as the storm is weakening by then. But you're right about in hurricane-force winds.

http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/woodbridge.gif

[wxman57]

57 I would like to see how New York City will be in the windfield.

I ran one but it only showed about 1 hour of 39 mph winds and about 14-15 hours of 25 mph+ winds.

Ok, enough for tonight, bed time. I can run more wind profiles as the storm approaches.

[wxman57]

Keep in mind, those are only approximations. For one thing, our model doesn't take into account the interior of the eye. Generally, that's not a big deal, but for Isabel that could be 90 minutes of relative calm between two sharp spikes.

Anyone want to see a wind profile for another city?

actually yes, if I may be so humble to ask. Would like to see numbers for mainland NC. New Bern, NC (28560 is zip code) is preferred if you can't do that then I could live with Wilmington, NC

My mother is even more of a hurricane fanatic then I am and this would interest her very much due to the sound and all the river and I know there are other NC mainlanders hiding in corners around here somewhere to

Oops! I messed up on yours, got confused. Just for that, I included the bottom portion of the wind profile for you. It has added detail about the proximity of stronger winds:

http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/newbern1.gif

http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/newbern2.gif

Note that you will NOT be very far away from 100+ mph winds on the current track. Let me put that into perspective, all it would take would be for Isabel to track about 1 degree farther west (on the compass) for you to be hit directly, sort of like if it moved NNW at 352 degrees vs 353 degrees. So you're by no means out of the woods as far as 100+ mph winds.