Isabel update at 11 PM, forecast, historical facts, & ad

[WXBUFFJIM]

UPDATE ON ISABEL 11 PM EDT

Hurricane Isabel continues to churn as a very dangerous hurricane tonight northeast of the Bahamas. All residents along the east coast, especially from Myrtle Beach, South Carolina northward through New England need to keep a close eye on this, prepare for the hurricane, and evacuate IMMEDIATELY when ordered to do so.

11 PM ADVISORY

At 11 PM EDT, the center of dangerous hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 24.5 north, longitude 68.3 west or about 535 miles east of Nassau in the central Bahamas or about 850 miles south southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Movement is toward the west northwest at 13 mph. This motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours with an eventual turn towards the northwest after that. Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph with higher gusts. Little change is strength is expected for the next 24 hours.

Isabel is a very large hurricane with a large wind field. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to a whopping 115 miles from the center while tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure remains at 933 mb or 27.55 inches.

Dangerous surf, swells, and rip currents are likely to affect the greater antillies including the Turks and Caicos Islands over the next few days. This will spread towards the eastern seaboard over the next day or two as well as the hurricane approaches.

HISTORICAL HURRICANE STRIKES

Alittle pop quiz to start off. When was the last time New Jersey saw a landfalling hurricane??? September 16th, 1903 was the date and we're approaching the 100th anniversary of the landfall in New Jersey. Just gives you an idea how rare hurricanes make landfall in New Jersey.

Some more historical moments include the 1933 Chesapeake-Potomac Hurricane. This storm made landfall near the Virginia Capes and move up west of the Chesapeake Bay. However Hurricane Force winds occurred all the way to New Jersey sweeping fishing piers away along the southern NJ coast and cut the inlet, which now forms the southern tip of the Ocean City inlet!!! Storm surge of 5-6 feet pushed up the Delaware Bay into Philadelphia and Wilmington back in 1933. This is just some of the hints Isabel could have in these same areas late Wednesday into Thursday, potentially on a slightly more intense level, especially for Norfolk and Virginia Beach points south. Areas north of there also need to monitor the situation very closely from the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays up into southern New England. Isabel could potentially be as bad if not worse than the 1933 Chesapeake-Potomac hurricane.

ADVICE AND PREPARATION PROCEDURES

Since Isabel will threaten and likely make landfall later this week along the eastern seaboard, preparation and possible evacuations may become neccessary. While Isabel is 3 days away from approaching the Mid Atlantic coast, now is a good time to review your disaster plans and be ready to implement that plan as neccessary. Check your insurance to make sure you have the adequate coverage needed in case your home or business is damaged or destroyed by winds or water. Have flashlights and battery powered appliances on hand such as a battery powered radio or a battery powered NOAA WX radio to keep updated on the progress of Isabel just in case electricity is lost to your home or business. Keep a supply of non perishable foods and beverages that can last for several days time. Also keep cooking tools and a can opener handy. Keep extra hygiene items on hand. If you're on medication, have extra prescriptions available.

If you live in a coastal area, decide right now where you will go in the event you are ordered to evacuate. If you plan to go to a shelter, you will have to make other arrangements for your pets. Storm shelters usually do not accept animals. Know your best evacuation route before the storm strikes. The sooner these preparations are done, the better!!!

Based on the current forecast track, all hazards are expected with this hurricane at landfall along the NC-VA coast including very dangerous storm surge of 10-15 feet and waves of 30-40 feet off the Mid Atlantic coast, damaging winds of 100-140 mph with higher gusts, and flooding rains of 5-10 inches expected. Certainly the potential of extensive damage is there from NC up to VA and MD. Beyond that, Isabel while weaker could still have a significant impact from northern Maryland into Delaware, New Jersey and Pennsylvania and preparations to protect your life and property should begin in all these areas. Have a plan of action in place as though this is the worse case scenario and implement that plan as conditions warrant.

Further updates will be given on evacs as well as watches and warnings as we get them. In the meantime, preparation is key!!!

Jim

[Guest]

Here is another intresting fact should Isabel somehow make landfall on the DE coast????????????............It would be a first for the first state sence the NHC has been keeping track of these!.............And btw MD has not seen a major hurricane make landfall either!...................Either way great info and discussion Jim.

[rainstorm]

thanks jim!!

[SWV]

Useful and timely! I'm sharing this info with family and friends. Susan