Has Isabel stabilized or is it still weakening?

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rob8303
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Has Isabel stabilized or is it still weakening?

#1 Postby rob8303 » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:25 am

First of all, CNN's Chad Meyers just announced that the turn has begun. Second, is Isabel continuing to weaken or has it stabilized at 120 kts?
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#2 Postby weatherFrEaK » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:34 am

Shear and dry air is taking its toll. I believe it is weakening. Water vapor loops show this pretty well.
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#3 Postby Lowpressure » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:35 am

Dry air is coming in from the north and starting to wrap around. Looks a little ragged on IR.
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#4 Postby JetMaxx » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:37 am

I won't be surprised if Isabel weakens slightly further (down to 130 mph)....then strengthens some (back to 140-145 mph) when she begins accelerating toward the North Carolina coast tomorrow, only to weaken again as she nears landfall..

My landfall forecast is now 125-130 mph (110-115 kts) in the Morehead City to Cape Hatteras area on Thursday morning.
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#5 Postby abajan » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:50 am

Isabel is weakening. Look at the latest IR Floater:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

IMHO, winds will probably be down to 140 mph by 11:00 AM.
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#6 Postby GalvestonDuck » Mon Sep 15, 2003 9:14 am

I was watching the Today Show this AM and of course, Isabel was the top story there and on Good Morning, America. Anyway, one of the Today Show reporters was at the Outer Banks and was explaining how the waters are cooler further north and it could cause her to weaken, blah, blah, blah...we already understand all that about SST's.

Anyway -- as he was explaining it, he waded out into the water just barely to his knees, pulled up on a rope, and brought up a thermometer that he said he dropped into the water to see the temps. "73 degrees," is what he read.

Am I wrong, or does it really make no sense to attempt to measure the temp of the water just 10 feet from shore? Isn't it markedly cooler in shallow water? I mean, 73 degrees...come on!
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