Give credit where credit is due...

SouthFLTropics · #1 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 9:23 am

For the past week I have been floating around here on this site and I have seen and read all of the different opinions, and have enjoyed the information that I have recieved. I live on the east coast of South/Central Florida and have seen storms come and go. I have lived here all of my life, since 1975. I am a fourth generation Floridian and I have heard all of the stories of storms in the past, including the 1928 hurricane that devastated Palm Beach County and the Lake Okeechobee area. I even have original pictures from that event that have been handed down to me from my relatives.
I guess the point I'm getting at is that it is refreshing to see so many different opinions about a particular storm whether they be right or wrong. That is what this country is all about. I enjoy all of the opinions on the board, including those from the people that seem to be "-removed-". But the fact remains that when I need to get all the important actual information, I leave it up to the NHC. The forecasters at the NHC really deserve a pat on the back for the work that they have done this year. I know that in years past they have been off on some storms (ie. Mitch, Irene). And those mistakes have been costly not only in dollars but also in lives. The forecasters at the NHC have to live with those "forecast mistakes" every day. This year it seems that the NHC has outdone themselves. Their forecast this year have seemed extremely accurate. Better than in years past. Of course the technology has gotten better but it still takes a human to sort through all of that technology. They have done an excellent job with most of the storms this year including Fabian and now Isabel. I feel extremely confident in their abilities and their forecasts. I for one am tired of seeing the NHC getting bashed whenever they are somewhat off. I think their recent track record speaks for itself. They deserve alot of credit. On that note hopefully they are wrong when it comes to Isabel. I know alot of people in NC, Maryland, and Virginia would like to see here get a one way ticket to Greenland.
I hope everyone on the mid atlantic coast stays safe and prepares accordingly. Our prays from south and central Florida are with you.

SouthFLTropics
Jason

#2 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 9:25 am

Well said Jason.

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 9:27 am

Yes agree 100% as I haved said the same about how NHC forecast tracks haved done excellent this season with a few miles off to the left or right but kudos to them and now with Isabel the track is going as they had forecasted 100%.

AussieMark · #4 Postby **AussieMark** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 9:29 am

All they need to is fix up the intensity errors and we give them an <B>A+</B>

Rainband · #5 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 9:31 am

I agree also..while it seemed tense for a bit..for us novices. The NHC and the mets on this site have done an incredible job forecasting Isabel thus far..and I for one plan on having a little more faith in them in the future :wink:

#6 Postby **msbee** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 9:35 am

NHC forecast that Fabian would not be a threat to the Northern Caribbean islands and they were right
thank God becasue everyone listened to them and no one prepared.
NHC said they weren't sure about Isabel and the Caribbean islands. everyone listened and started preparations just in case.
Isabel did not threaten us but NHC did not say that until they were reasonably sure and I for one appreciate that.
Steve Lyons said last night on TWC that we are reasonably good in predicting tracks but we're not so good in predicting intensity

#7 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 9:42 am

Well nice of you pass the compliments even though theyseason is long from over with. First all, I am not sure I agree that the NHC has done such a fine job SO FAR this season. They were way off on Claudette and they seem to miss the boast as to when to classify or not classify a system a TD or TS. We still don't know how they will eventually fair with Isabel. So I think we need to wait just yet.

chadtm80 · #8 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 9:50 am

NHC has done an excellent job like always. I dont need to wait and see about that. I already KNOW it..

#9 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 10:02 am

Stormcenter wrote:Well nice of you pass the compliments even though theyseason is long from over with. First all, I am not sure I agree that the NHC has done such a fine job SO FAR this season. They were way off on Claudette and they seem to miss the boast as to when to classify or not classify a system a TD or TS. We still don't know how they will eventually fair with Isabel. So I think we need to wait just yet.

What do you base your comments on? How far off was NHC with Claudette? And whether or not to classify a tropical disturbance as a TD or TS is somewhat subjective at best. NHC has to follow a lot of parameters which we know nothing about and they have a lot of information which the public does not. Like it or not they do have to "please the public" and prevent panic, etc. One point I want to make here is that most of the people you will find on a weather site such as this are MUCH MORE versed in all the parameters involved in the weather and formation of storms and how their track is determined, but in the end we ALL rely on the NHC etc. for quite a bit of our information. The NHC is not there to please those of us that want all the details or think we can outguess them-they are there for the PUBLIC AT LARGE and must take that into account in all that they do.

#10 Postby **Trader Ron** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 10:15 am

Chad,

I concur.The NHC does a great job.Some peeps are never satisfied.Guess they are perfect! :?

Give credit where credit is due...

Give credit where credit is due...

Huh?

Re: Huh?

NHC

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