Tropical Storm Linda (yes a minor story right now)

[weatherlover427]

TROPICAL STORM LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122003
0900Z MON SEP 15 2003

...RETRANSMISSION...

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 111.9W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 111.9W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 111.6W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.6N 113.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.7N 114.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 21.4N 116.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.8N 117.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.0N 120.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 22.0N 122.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 22.0N 125.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 111.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

FORECASTER BEVEN

TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2003

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LINDA CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A GOOD CURVED BAND PATTERN AND THE BEGINNINGS OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 315/8. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LINDA IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD MOVE LINDA GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS LINDA REACHES COLDER WATER...WEAKENS...AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. MOST NHC GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. LINDA SHOULD REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR WARM-WATER ENVIRONMENT FOR 24-36 HR...AND THUS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE. AFTER THAT...COLDER WATER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 18.6N 111.9W 55 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 19.6N 113.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 20.7N 114.7W 70 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 21.4N 116.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 21.8N 117.6W 60 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 22.0N 120.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 22.0N 122.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 20/0600Z 22.0N 125.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

I am posting this because I may see leftover moisture from her in about a week.

[weatherlover427]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1422.shtml?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1422.shtml?

[AussieMark]

Is this another Eastern Pacific Tropical STorm/Category 1 Hurricane that wont make it to Major Hurricane status.

Geeze
12 Tropical Storms..so far
0 Major Hurricanes..so far

When was the last year that either didn't produce a Major Hurricane or with one coming as late as this.

[AussieMark]

I answered my own question:

The last year to produce a Major Hurricane later than the curent date was <B>October 10, 1981</B>

The most recent year to not produce a Major Hurricane was <B>1977</B>